The likelihood of armed forces in Sagaing progressing to the next level

Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 28 Scenes
MoeMaKa, November 29 2022

The likelihood of armed forces in Sagaing progressing to the next level


Some of the earliest armed forces that emerged in Sagaing after the military coup were formed around April last year, so they have now become armed organizations that have been around for over a year and a half. Even the most recent regionally formed armed forces have reached a term of almost a year. As for the small armed organizations that emerged in the region during the year, there are lessons to be learned from the review of the year, and I believe that the NUG, the leading organization of the armed revolution, will be responsible for political consolidation. It is believed that there will be an urgent need for a cooperation and command system to emerge among the armed organizations that have formed for military operations.


If armed organizations emerged and could not be organized politically, as time went by, they would rule by their own definition, and it could lead to misunderstandings between other organizations within that region and locals in other regions.

It will be necessary to build cooperative action and understanding to fight against the military council with a collective strategy, collect weapons, and raise funds. Such cooperation must be built on a political basis. In other words, it is necessary to have the same political goals and to coordinate political ideas and methods of practice.

After choosing the armed path, it is no longer possible to plan and prepare for a short period of time, like a month, a year or two. It is necessary to establish the processes considering the long-term political path, the survival of the organization, the local people to be able to continue supporting and survive in the long run, and their livelihoods.

In civil wars, victory and defeat are rarely resolved within a year or two, and often take up to 5 to 10 years to resolve. Civil wars without international participation, weapons, and financial support can last for a longer time, and civil wars with international intervention and support are short-lived, but if other objectives are involved, they can have side effects.

Myanmar’s current armed conflict is an armed struggle  for the liberation of ethnic armed organizations that has been going on for more than 7 decades and for the right to self-determination. After the coup, what emerged was a resistance attack to overthrow the military dictatorship in the areas, the mainland, where the majority of Myanmar people live, and an attack on a common enemy by forming an alliance with ethnic armed organizations. It is a resistance war with the goal of winning democracy.

When it becomes a long-term war, it will be necessary to consider not just the recent wins and losses of the war but the long-term organizational structure, political organizations that will endure a long-term struggle, and political mobilization to gain the long-term support of local residents and their livelihoods.

All in all, I think that it will be necessary to review the journey we have been on for more than a year and put into practice compatible plans for the road ahead.