Myanmar Spring Chronicle – May 21 Scenes
MoeMaKa, May 22, 2024
Wars, the Possibility of Food Shortages, and the Chance of Survival
A few months after the peaceful protests following the 2021 military coup, the decision was made to take up arms against the military regime. Existing ethnic armed groups supported the newly emerging armed groups, and in turn, expanded their own strength and seized more territory.
The coup military, being the most powerful armed force, likely believed that no other armed group could match its power. They probably staged the coup under the assumption that it would be impossible to form a unified alliance among the numerous armed groups.
However, the military did not anticipate the emergence of new armed groups from Burman-inhabited areas. They didn’t foresee the formation of local armed groups and urban guerrilla units in regions like Magway, Sagaing, and Mandalay Divisions, which have been conducting ambushes and explosions in the cities. Nearly two years after the coup, hundreds of armed groups have emerged in Myanmar, evolving from using handmade and hunting rifles to automatic weapons, shoulder-mounted launchers, and rockets.
The coup military has faced significant challenges, including depletion of its forces and defections to anti-military groups. For the opposition, gathering manpower has become easier.
It is now widely acknowledged that overthrowing the coup military through armed struggle is not an impossible task. However, each armed group fighting against the military council has its own objectives, and not all are aimed at establishing a federal democratic union.
Some ethnic armed groups prefer a confederation-like structure over a federal union, influenced by a bitter history of not being unified and sharing struggles. The current direction is shaped by both military and political perspectives. The successful integration of different goals—whether federal or confederate—will depend on the vision and maturity of the armed and political organizations involved.
The maturity of these organizations, their political understanding, and their recognition of the benefits of cooperation and unity will be crucial. Past experiences of forced collectivization may lead some groups to pursue independence for a time.
Geopolitically, Myanmar’s central location in Southeast Asia, between China and India, means it will inevitably be influenced by its neighbors. China, as an economic superpower, likely prefers a governing body in Myanmar that is not closely aligned with the United States, its regional competitor.
Myanmar’s political issues are not isolated but are influenced by external factors. It is essential to understand this and act with foresight. Every organization must make decisions with the public’s best interests in mind.