Myanmar Spring Chronicle – May 18 Scenes
MoeMaKa, May 19, 2024
The Rakhine State Conflict and the Potential for Complications: Outcomes of the Haigen Dialogue in Yunnan Province
In Rakhine State, the Arakan Army (AA) has launched multiple offensives, capturing several of the military junta’s battalions, Military Operations Command headquarters, strategic camps, and cities. However, in Buthidaung and other northern regions, misunderstandings or allegations of racial targeting have arisen between Rohingya Muslims and AA forces.
Firstly, the military junta, suffering continuous losses, has been recruiting Rohingya Muslims as soldiers. This group had been segregated following ethnic and religious riots in 2012, 2013, and 2014, before the conscription law was enacted.
Since the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, the military junta has been recruiting young and middle-aged men from Rohingya refugee camps. Following February 10, as military operations intensified in northern Rakhine State, forced recruitment escalated.
Recently, the AA seized the town after capturing strategic military camps and battalions in Buthidaung Township. Over the past month, protests and arson attacks on homes, believed to be orchestrated by the military junta, have occurred. These incidents appear to be deliberate attempts to incite ethnic conflict between Rohingya Muslims and the Rakhine people amid ongoing clashes between the AA and the military junta.
There are allegations that the AA committed human rights violations against Rohingya people in some villages in Buthidaung and Maungdaw Townships.
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has expressed concern over the recent events in Rakhine State, fearing that more ethnic killings might occur, a statement which the AA has denied.
Given that Myanmar’s military regime often resorts to creating ethnic strife to deflect from political crises, it is plausible that they instigated the ethnic issue in Rakhine State following their military defeat.
Human rights organizations are urging the armed forces to adhere to human rights standards and the Geneva Convention.
The ethnic conflicts in Rakhine State in 2012 and 2017 significantly impacted Myanmar’s democratic transition. Now, in 2024, it is crucial for involved organizations to prevent similar incidents from recurring.
Four months after a ceasefire agreement was brokered by China in Operation 1027 in northern Shan State, the military junta and the Northern Brotherhood Alliance met again in China. Following the ceasefire, there were no armed clashes on the northern Shan border with China, suggesting that discussions focused on border trade issues in addition to the ceasefire. However, the details of these discussions have not been disclosed.
China prioritizes stability in border areas and views the resumption of border trade as a lucrative opportunity. Using its diplomatic influence, China is facilitating these discussions and negotiations.
Although China has significant influence over armed groups in the border areas, these groups may feel that their military and political influence is being undermined.
On a related note, discussions were held between the military junta and the AA, which has been gaining military victories in Rakhine State. According to some reports, these discussions did not yield any significant outcomes. There have been previous reports of China’s efforts to mediate and discuss the Rakhine conflict. It is likely that China will provide clear guidance to both the military junta and the AA concerning the safety of its investments, such as the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and oil and gas pipelines.