Evaluating the military durability of the Military Council

Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 30 Scenes

MoeMaKa, August 31, 2023

Evaluating the military durability of the Military Council


In Karen State, Chin State, and Karenni State, while the military council troops are fighting ethnic armed groups and PDF forces, we are hearing that there are simultaneous incidents of military raids entering villages in Kachin State in northern Myanmar and Sagaing Division in upper Myanmar.


According to news reports, fighting between the military council troops and KNU/KNLA has been going on in the 3rd Brigade in Karen State and Bago Division, Nyaunglebin area, 6th and 7th Brigades in Karen State’s Myawaddy, and Kawkareik. There were also reports of civilian deaths due to heavy weapon fire.


According to the latest reports, when the Chin National Front and Chin Defense Forces launched an attack on the military council’s battalion site and other deployment areas in Thantlang, Chin State, more than 30 members of the military council were killed and 20 members of the Chin Defense and Chin National Front were killed.


While ethnic armed groups and PDF forces have jointly attacked military council troops in Chin State and Karen State, military council troops are active in areas such as Bhamo and Nam Samyang, the road to Laiza, where the KIA headquarters is located, in northern Kachin State, Myanmar, leading to clashes with KIA forces and intercepted attacks on military convoys by KIA.


You may have noticed in the news that the military council has been deploying troops on some parts of the road leading to the KIA headquarters for the past few months.


Military council troops have been stationed around Nam Samyang since last month, and it is not clear whether they are deployed to threaten or pressure the KIA headquarters. But it can be concluded that military forces have moved to Laiza, where the headquarters is, to put pressure on the KIA due to the fact that they are providing arms and military advice to the Sagaing and Magway regions, and in some places, KIA troops are helping in person.


While the Military Council is preparing military operations to pressure the KIA, clashes are also taking place around Muse in northern Shan State with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) in the vicinity of Muse, along the China-Myanmar border trade highway. There are frequent battles around Muse, Se Lam Village and Kho Mone Village.


Looking at the country as a whole, the military council is waging armed battles in Kachin State, Shan North, Karenni State, Karen State, Tanintharyi Region, Chin State, Sagaing Region, the upper part of Magway Region, and some areas of Mandalay Region. The military council still has to deploy some military forces for security in Yangon, Mandalay, and Nay Pyi Taw cities. Rather than having fixed security and control over the highways that connect one state to another or one region to another, the troops are moving from one battlefield to another and are living in the areas where the battalions or companies are based.


At the moment, the places where there is no fighting for the Military Council are Southern Shan State, Eastern Shan State, Ayeyarwady Division, Mon State (some areas), Rakhine State (some areas), Mandalay Division (some areas), and Naga Region in the northwest of Sagaing Division. If these areas are excluded, in Kachin State, Chin State, some parts of Mandalay Division, some parts of Northern Shan State, almost the entire Karenni State, some parts of the Sittaung River basin in the eastern part of Bago Division, and some parts of Tanintharyi Division, armed battles are taking place daily.


If we have to answer the question of how much more weapons, financial resources, and military strength the military council can replenish, it is true that recruitment has become difficult and the number of soldiers is gradually decreasing. However, it cannot be expected that the military council troops will be disorganized overnight. On the other hand, we still need to consider that the military council can still purchase weapons with the finances obtained from the country’s taxes and resources.


If we adopt strategies expecting that the military council will collapse overnight, it will be non-practical, and if it doesn’t happen in reality, it will become depressing and discouraging.


It will also be necessary to prepare and organize so that we can face the situation until the armed struggle becomes long-term. Looking at the fact that the military council can still open a war front through the country at the same time, it is important not to underestimate the enemy, and it is time to try and fulfill our long-term endurance, ability to supply resources, etc.