The year 2023 that will decide the revolution

Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 08 Scenes
MoeMaKa, October 09 2022
The year 2023 that will decide the revolution

The NUG government announced yesterday that the coming year, 2023, will be the year that will end the revolution, which means that the military dictatorship led by Min Aung Hlaing will be defeated.

It will be the 3rd year of the military coup since February 2021. I think it’s time to take a realistic look at the anti-dictatorship movement that has been about a year and 8 months counting from the time of the military coup until now, the armed conflict that was transformed a few months after the movement and diplomatically organized sanctions by putting aside the wishful desire.

What has been achieved after passing 1 year and 8 months? What were the losses? Has the strategy been established for people’s resilience, the financial resources needed for armed attacks, the ability to organize politically and militarily, and the ability to mobilize under a compact unanimous order? Is the adopted strategy whether or not compatible with the background conditions of the external reality? Is it operating in the correct way tactically? Is there any weakness? What would it be if there was? Was it possible to organize the mediator in terms of political organization? Was it possible to turn the supporter of the other side into a mediator? Were they able to properly organize those on their side? Leaders who have the ability to judge and criticize, should evaluate without prejudice the various views and approaches, including those described above. Even if the reality is an unexpected situation, I think it is necessary to accept that reality, establish the practical strategies and tactics, and implement them.

In the early months of the spring revolution, some public leaders believed that the CDM movement would be able to overthrow the military council through mass protests. CDM employees and the public were mobilized with motivational speeches that if they could endure for 2 weeks, there would be victory. However, It is against the regime that has built power based on the military. Only a political party that rises through the election that could be overthrown by public protests but not with Min Aung Hlaing’s. It is a lesson to be learned that a junta that is built on the military will not give up power so easily.

In such a period, only if the powerful leadership of the military breaks up, will the victory of the public movement be achieved. An example is the movement that brought down the Philippine dictator Marcos in 1986. Since the possibility of such a situation is very low in Myanmar, the influential people in the military do not switch sides and they stayed united since the beginning of last year (2021) and make armed forces to oppress Myanmar people.

The peaceful mass protests of 2021 have been compared to the 8888 Uprising, as well as to the 1946 general strike by all civil servants while struggling to break free from British colonial rule during the post-World War II. They would have expected that by comparing it to a general strike against the British White Paper project, which was an all-staff general strike, including police personnel, and which pressured the British. In reality, the level of brutality of the British rulers who realized it was inevitable to grant independence to the colonies after World War II and the Military Council was completely different.

The military council is totally committed to win the war so that they are committing all brutal attacks such things as burning villages and killing civilians. It needs to be evaluated as an army fighting a battle that can determine its power and interests to win by trampling down all resources, military discipline, morale, and international laws. As well as portraying their atrocities, the public should not be easily convinced that they will win tomorrow, next month, or next year, underestimating the nature of the forces that are building for the interests of the coup army.

‘Speak seldom and keep the word,’ (Action should be louder than words) should be the right organizing method and basic principle. It should not be done to maintain support and organize people by giving false hope that it will be easy to win and easy to end. Such a kind of leadership would be considered poor leadership.

In order to defeat the coup army in the coming year 2023, it is necessary to realize and understand that correct evaluation and correct strategy are important, as well as the sacrifices, attitude and practice of fighting together, whether in good or bad weather.