The Struggle Against Military Dictatorship and the People’s Fight for Survival

The Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 28

(MoeMaKa) August 29, 2024

The Struggle Against Military Dictatorship and the People’s Fight for Survival

Since the military coup on February 1, 2021, the movement to overthrow the military dictatorship has evolved into an armed revolution. The primary aim has been to completely remove the military, which has long dominated politics, through armed struggle. This effort has led to the formation of various armed groups, not only among ethnic armed organizations but also among new groups that have emerged under the general name of the People’s Defense Force (PDF) across villages, towns, and regions.

Three and a half years after the military coup and over three years since armed resistance began, it is essential to reflect on the current state of affairs, the progress made, and the path ahead. The past three years have seen significant developments in politics, military, economy, education, healthcare, alliances, and conflicts, as well as the extent to which the public has been mobilized and shared in the sufferings of the majority. It is also crucial to consider the public’s attitude towards the ongoing war.

In daily news, we often see reports of armed clashes, the number of casualties among armed group members, captured weapons and ammunition, the number of houses burned down, the count of displaced persons, civilian deaths, those detained, and territories and camps captured. These figures and statistics, however, rarely reflect the true sentiments, views, and struggles of the people. Instead, we mostly see statements and declarations from leaders of armed groups, highlighting their successes and propaganda.

The goals of these armed groups do not always align with the interests of the general public. Even among the armed groups fighting against the military junta, there are differing objectives and interests. This raises questions about whether the success of a particular armed group is beneficial only to that group or also to other groups opposing the dictatorship. The differing paths taken by various armed groups and the contrast between their stated objectives and the realities on the ground are worth noting.

Over the past three years, while territorial control has expanded significantly, which may seem like a positive sign from a military perspective, it has also led to a reduction in safe spaces for displaced persons. In Rakhine State, for example, while people could previously seek refuge within the state during clashes, the current situation of restricted movement and widespread conflict areas means that even fleeing for safety is fraught with danger.

Some people have crossed the border into neighboring countries to escape the conflict, but this often leads to further risks, such as natural disasters or inadequate boat conditions. Similarly, in northern Shan State, displaced persons have been forced to flee south to Shan State or Mandalay Region due to the proximity of the conflict. The distance and high costs of fleeing have made displacement even more challenging and expensive.

In Kachin State, where intense fighting continues, people are often unable to cross from one area to another, leading to repeated displacement within the same state. A senior leader from the Karen National Union (KNU) once mentioned in a media interview that military operations must consider not only the armed group’s strategies but also the safety, food supply, and displacement of the local population.

However, such careful considerations are rare in the current nationwide conflict. In recent months, the number of displaced persons in Yangon, Taunggyi, and Mandalay has noticeably increased. Displaced persons from Rakhine, northern Shan State, and Sagaing Region have sought refuge in these major cities, while some with the means have temporarily moved to neighboring countries. For most, though, even staying in these cities has become increasingly difficult.

Many people from regions like Sagaing and upper Magway have fled to nearby villages and towns. The cost of displacement, especially for those who have lost their livelihoods, has become significantly higher than living in their own villages, making it difficult to endure prolonged displacement.

As the conflict enters its fourth year with over three million displaced persons, rising inflation, skyrocketing food prices, and soaring transportation costs, the public’s hopes for the future have dimmed. The ongoing war, now lasting for years, has left people with little energy to envision a bright ending.

The optimistic statistics, graphs, and figures reported in the media often fail to align with the realities on the ground, as only those living through the conflict can truly understand.