The Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 27th Scene
(MoeMaKa) August 28, 2024
Global Issues Impacting Myanmar’s Situation
Myanmar’s internal conflict, armed clashes, refugee crisis, and the struggle to restore democracy have become major concerns for the international community and neighboring countries since the 2021 military coup. Following the February 1, 2021 coup, there were mass protests, the formation of the National Unity Government, the emergence of numerous new armed groups, and the widespread escalation of the civil war. This led to hundreds of thousands of refugees, war crimes, mass killings, extrajudicial executions, and the deaths of thousands of civilians, including women and children, drawing global attention to the need for a collective response to the Myanmar crisis.
Up until early 2022, there was considerable international effort and interest in addressing Myanmar’s issues. In 2021, ASEAN imposed a Five-Point Consensus to pressure the military council, just a few months after the coup.
However, as the armed conflict and civil war intensified domestically, while most of the Myanmar populace hoped for a swift victory, international governments and organizations began to view the Myanmar issue as a long-term conflict. By 2022, as the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in February, Myanmar’s plight faded into the background, with the Ukraine war taking center stage on the global stage. In 2023, the conflict in Gaza, Palestine, also came to the forefront of international attention, further pushing Myanmar’s situation to the background.
By 2024, global issues were not just focused on Ukraine and Gaza, but also on the Middle East, where signs indicated that conflicts could escalate further. Concerns arose about how Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, as well as Israel, might become involved in armed conflicts. Meanwhile, in East Asia, rising tensions between the Philippines and China over the South China Sea, and the potential conflict between Taiwan and China, have further diverted attention from Myanmar.
Myanmar, now under the increasing influence of China, a global power with strategic interests, has also seen a shift in focus. Even the United States, which strongly supports the restoration of democracy in Myanmar, seems to partially accept China’s stance on the Myanmar issue. Notably, there has been a lack of clear and outspoken opposition between China and the United States regarding Myanmar.
Among Myanmar’s neighbors, India, a regional power, is more concerned with securing its borders and shows little direct influence on Myanmar’s internal conflict or political changes. India maintains formal relations with the current military council and has not been seen engaging with or supporting any armed opposition groups.
Thailand, another neighboring country, also maintains close ties with both the Myanmar military and China. The Thai government’s policies seem aligned with China’s, showing no opposition to its approach.
Similarly, Bangladesh, preoccupied with its domestic political instability, is not in a position to engage actively with Myanmar’s issues, focusing instead on resolving the longstanding Rohingya refugee problem.
In summary, international attention on Myanmar’s situation is waning, and only China and ASEAN’s policies and actions may continue to exert external influence. Domestically, Myanmar’s various forces must rely on their own strength to drive change forward.