Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 30
(MoeMaKa, August 31, 2024)
Increasing Pressure from China Following a Warning Letter
On August 29, a letter addressed to the TNLA (Ta’ang National Liberation Army) from the Shuilei Security Committee was made public. The next day, Shan North’s ethnic media, Shwe Phee Myay, reported on it, followed by other media outlets.
The letter, titled “Notice of Military Exercises,” began by stating, “Military exercises will soon be completed on the Chinese side. The TNLA is expected to cease military operations immediately and cooperate with China to maintain peace and stability in the northern regions of Myanmar and the border areas with China.” The letter appears to serve as a reminder of China’s military presence and its intent to maintain control and order in the border regions.
The letter further emphasizes, “Efforts must be made to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens, businesses, and interests in Myanmar, particularly in the border regions. Any military actions that endanger Chinese nationals or disrupt the peace along the border must be eliminated.” This points not only to border areas like Shuilei and Muse but also to the protection of Chinese citizens and investments within Myanmar.
Given the Security Committee’s reference to Chinese interests within Myanmar, it can be inferred that the letter reflects the stance of the central Chinese government rather than just the local committee. It appears that China is issuing a warning to the TNLA under the guise of local authority to avoid direct diplomatic confrontation.
The letter also suggests that China is concerned about not only the border regions but also areas further south, such as Mandalay Region and the Sagaing border areas, where there have been clashes involving PDF forces. It references areas like Mogaung and Naungcho, indicating that China is concerned about military activities even beyond the immediate border regions.
China’s dissatisfaction with the TNLA’s recent military operations, particularly the second phase of Operation 1027, is evident. This dissatisfaction has been further highlighted by the recent visit of China’s Foreign Minister to the SAC leader, the Mekong-Lancang meeting, and subsequent discussions with the foreign ministers of Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos.
The letter concludes with a call to enhance efforts to promote peace in northern Myanmar, suggesting that China will continue to monitor the situation closely, no matter where or when it occurs. Some political analysts have expressed doubts about the letter’s authenticity, but TNLA leaders have confirmed it as genuine to some media outlets.
In summary, the letter underscores China’s increasing pressure and dissatisfaction with the ongoing military activities in northern Myanmar, indicating a more assertive stance by China in the region.