Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 4 Scene
(MoeMaKa) August 5, 2024
The Northeast Command Headquarters (NCH) falls into the hands of the Kokang armed group, with thousands of surrenders and captives, including the commander.
The Kokang armed group MNDAA announced last week that they had taken control of the Northeast Command Headquarters based in Lashio and were preparing to administer the city. However, it was only on August 2nd and 3rd that they fully captured the headquarters and overcame the NCH’s resistance.
During the last weeks of July, the fighting intensified, and by mid-July, the remaining residents and humanitarian aid groups left the city around July 27. Only a few civilians who couldn’t leave for various reasons stayed behind. In the last week, the group fiercely attacked and took over key locations, including the prison and the military headquarters.
The Kokang armed group seized the strategic town at the border, the largest in the northern Shan region, and the Northeast Command Headquarters.
On the night of August 4th, the military council admitted that the Kokang troops had captured the commander and two other senior officers, confirming the fall of the entire Lashio city and the NCH. They also reported attacks on NCH’s medical facilities, with patients and staff being detained, alleging war crimes.
Details on how people were killed in the hospital attacks are hard to confirm in this situation. Meanwhile, the military council’s attacks on civilians in Sagaing, northern Magway, and other regions have resulted in numerous civilian casualties, making it difficult to gain public sympathy.
The fall of the NCH and the capture of senior officers, along with thousands of other soldiers and their families, marks a significant event not just in Shan State but in Myanmar’s history.
This situation, which was deemed impossible, shows that the military council, which ruled Myanmar for over seven decades, is nearing its end. The capture of the headquarters by opposition forces indicates significant losses for the military council, raising questions about leadership changes within the council.
The fall of the NCH to the opposition highlights the potential for leadership changes within the military council, whether Min Aung Hlaing and Soe Win will be held accountable or if new leaders will emerge. However, whether the majority of the council’s officers will continue to support the current leadership remains uncertain.
Some pro-military Telegram channels suggest China’s involvement behind the Kokang group and portray the loss of territory as an invasion. During the previous 1027 operation, temporary ceasefires were mediated by China, but this time, the operation continued until the fall of Lashio and the NCH.
There are reports that the military council refused to attend recent mediation talks proposed by China, indicating a complex relationship with significant foreign influences. The council’s attempts to align with Russia instead of China amidst territorial losses and military defeats are unlikely to aid their situation.
Myanmar’s prolonged internal conflicts, rooted in a lack of political solutions, have now reached their most critical and dire state. Various groups now believe that military might is the ultimate solution, marking a turning point for the Myanmar military, which had long dominated political and military power.
The prolonged internal conflict, which began over seven decades ago due to a lack of political resolutions, now sees different groups believing that military superiority is the decisive factor. This situation marks the nearing end of the Myanmar military’s dominance.