Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 5 Viewpoint
(Moe Ma Kha) August 6, 2024
Neighboring Country’s Prime Minister Toppled by Public Uprising; Speech by Military Council Leader
The news that Sheikh Hasina, the authoritarian female Prime Minister who ruled Bangladesh for 15 years, fled the country and took temporary refuge in India has surprised the world and does not bode well for the authoritarian regime in neighboring Myanmar. Though she was an elected Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina ruled for 15 years by suppressing opposition through various forms of oppression and unlawful machinations, manipulating the judiciary, and suppressing civil society organizations to ensure victory in every election. On August 5, she stepped down and fled the country.
Following over a month of student-led protests demanding the repeal of laws that provided quotas for war veterans who fought against Pakistani forces during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, Sheikh Hasina, who had used her power to manipulate elections and suppress opposition, was forced to step down and flee. The military did not intervene in political matters, nor did they support Sheikh Hasina in suppressing the protests, which may have prevented her from quelling the uprising.
In Myanmar, following the military coup in 2021, widespread protests and civil unrest occurred for months. However, unlike in Bangladesh, Myanmar’s military coup was firmly supported by the military, which violently suppressed protestors to maintain its power. This contrasts with the situation in Bangladesh, where the military and authoritarian regimes did not collude, making it easier to overthrow the authoritarian regime.
The resignation and flight of Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina could impact the ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis, the border conflict involving the military council’s camps, and the fighting between the Arakan Army (AA) and the military council’s armed forces along the border. However, it is still too early to predict the full impact. Since the 2017 atrocities against Rohingya villages in Rakhine, where thousands were killed and their homes burned, around one million Rohingya have faced harsh conditions in Bangladesh as refugees.
Bangladesh’s interim government will have to discuss the ongoing armed conflicts along the border and find solutions to the seven-year-old Rohingya refugee crisis. However, the situation in northern Rakhine, with ongoing clashes and instability, will likely be a priority for Bangladesh over other issues.
While the neighboring country’s Prime Minister fled to India, Myanmar’s military council’s armed forces faced setbacks, including losing control of a Northern Shan State military headquarters. On August 5, the military council leader announced an address to the nation and delivered it in military uniform that evening.
In his speech, the military council leader blamed the internal conflict on election fraud by the NLD and criticized ethnic armed groups for aiding the resistance. He also accused foreign countries and organizations of providing weapons and support to the armed groups, promising to take measures to counteract these influences.
The United Wa State Army (UWSA), with influence over the northern allies and connections to Kokang, TNLA, and AA, seems to be a point of concern for the military council. The council noted the UWSA’s connections and potential mutual interests with these groups. The second phase of Operation 1027 saw clashes in Lashio, with questions remaining about whether the UWSA intervened on behalf of the military council or had separate motivations.
Overall, the military council leader’s speech indicated a focus on rallying support from loyalists and maintaining a hardline stance without significant changes in strategy, even as a neighboring authoritarian leader fled. In contrast to Bangladesh, Myanmar’s military regime appears determined to continue its oppressive rule despite ongoing challenges.