Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 3
(MoeMaKa) August 4, 2024
The Situation in Myanmar: Not the Worst Yet
In the past years, the ongoing armed conflicts in various regions of Myanmar, including major cities, have resulted in numerous deaths, killings, destruction of homes and properties, looting, and significant inflation. Many have had to flee the conflict zones for months or even years. Although these circumstances were thought to be the worst, recent urban battles have brought even more severe casualties, displacements, and brutal killings, surpassing the previous years. Therefore, it’s concluded that the situation in Myanmar has not yet reached its worst state.
In recent battles to capture cities, especially larger cities like Lashio, which houses the military headquarters, the intensity of the fighting has caused unprecedented violence and destruction. These events are confirmed through photos, videos, and accounts from witnesses.
In these urban battles, heavy artillery fire indiscriminately targeted civilian areas, resulting in numerous deaths. Both sides suffered casualties, homes and properties were destroyed by fires, and extensive looting occurred as the city governance collapsed.
Amidst the chaos, Lashio Prison was breached, and nearly 3,000 inmates, including political prisoners, were released. The MNDAA and allied armed groups took control of the city, reallocating inmates based on their ethnic backgrounds. Reports also indicated that over 100 inmates died from artillery shelling during the intense battles.
Despite the MNDAA declaring control over Lashio and the regional military headquarters yesterday, their current priority is likely to prepare for counterattacks rather than governing the captured territories. They must brace for potential ground and air assaults.
The fierce battle to capture such a strategically significant city in northern Shan State raises concerns that similar conflicts might spread to other major cities. Speculations include potential urban battles in cities like Mandalay and Monywa or major towns in Kachin State, such as Myitkyina. Considering these possibilities, it is evident that Myanmar’s current situation is severe but could worsen in the coming months and years.
The recent battles in northern Shan State are generally seen as ethnic-based conflicts. It’s uncertain if similar scenarios might arise in mixed-population areas, where no single ethnic group is dominant.
Another consideration is the historical and political context of the armed groups. Their motivations and future actions will likely become clearer in the near future.
While individual fighters may claim to be driven solely by beliefs, armed groups often engage in conflicts for broader economic and political gains. The drive for territorial and urban control, along with associated benefits, underscores the pragmatic realities behind these wars.
It’s essential for those fighting for beliefs to also consider the history and actions of the groups they align with or lead. History shows that wars are often driven by interests, using various justifications to achieve those ends.
In conclusion, Myanmar’s current situation, marked by fierce battles and extensive destruction, indicates that while the worst may not have come yet, the future could bring even more severe conflicts and challenges.