Myanmar Spring Chronicle – July 29 Scenes
MoeMaKa, July 30, 2023
The military council’s steps before August 1, the day reaching 2 and a half years after the military coup
It will be 2 and a half years since the military coup with the excuse of the 2020 election fraud, where the NLD party won in a landslide victory.
The military unanimously approved the NLD party’s victory in the 2015 election, but did not accept the 2020 election result as such, gave the reason that the voter list was fraud, and threatened the winning party and the government in power at that time to make any changes to the election result. In other words, they pressured by holding press conferences more than a dozen times for their objection.
The events after the coup, as we all know, were the protests, crackdowns, shootings, arrests, resistance, formation of the National Unity Government, and the emergence of the armed forces known as the PDF, which have chosen armed paths. In the past 2 years, there have been ambush shootings, hand-made bombs blasting in cities, assassinations of suspected junta informers, administrative and civil department employees who are considered to be the pillars of the military council administration, battles, indiscriminate killings of women and children, mass murders, house burnings, tens of thousands of arrests, and extrajudicial killings.
In addition to these political violations, human rights violations, and confiscation of property, I don’t think it’s wrong to say that it was a 2 and a half year period with many health problems, economic, social, and educational difficulties in a situation where there was food insecurity, people fleeing their homes, and many agricultural activities were unable to be carried out due to inflation at unprecedented rates, fighting, arrests, and killings.
The military council pretended that the election would be held soon until the end of last year, but the day before February 1 this year, it extended its term for another 6 months. Instead of the election, they decided to declare martial law and step up the escalation of armed attacks. If we look back now, about 6 months after the extension of martial law to 37 townships, the military council did not have a military advantage, but the area where armed attacks took place has expanded, and the decreased ability to dominate and control the communication roads has only appeared as a result. On the other hand, the NUG, ethnic armed groups, and locally formed people’s defense groups have gained more territorial control, but they are still weak in terms of political organization.
As for the military council, during the 2 and a half year period, it will be seen that diplomacy, the military, the economy, and the ability to replenish the army, etc., are heading towards the downfall. However, if you expect the military council to collapse overnight, it will be an easy conclusion. A few weeks before reaching two and a half years, there are signs that the military council is considering changing its strategy.
The first sign was the incident on July 9, when the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Thailand visited Nay Pyi Taw and met with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. For the past 2 and a half years, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been portrayed as someone who is on trial for violating the law and has been convicted. Suddenly allowing a meeting with a member of the international government, i.e., the foreign minister of an ASEAN country, means that the military council wants to use Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s influence in the political field, in other words, it has admitted that its military suppression strategy has failed.
A few weeks later, when Aung San Suu Kyi was transferred from the Nay Pyi Taw prison to a housing complex where deputy ministers live, it can be concluded that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was removed as a convicted prisoner.
Also, these days, China’s Special Envoy’s trip to Nay Pyi Taw has been speculated as to whether it could be related to a change in step of policy during the upcoming 6-month term extension of the military council.
There is a possibility of changes in the political landscape and moves in a quick way in the next few days.
In such a period, in approaching the changes by political forces, I think it is a situation where they have to assess and respond to the short-term and long-term benefits that will affect the public and the basic position of their group.
The military council has not reduced military momentum and is still launching offensives. Meanwhile, it is making a move on the political front, and increasing the spread of the propaganda news and fake news on social media to divide among the civilians. It need to be aware of such situations.