Myanmar Spring Chronicle – March 11 Scenes
MoeMaKa, March 12 2023
United States intelligence report on Myanmar’s loss and winning
In the past few days, the annual report of the US Office of Director of National Intelligence-ODNI stated that the armed conflict between Myanmar’s military council and the forces fighting to overthrow the military council is not yet in a condition for the one side to win outright in the near future, and it is also predicted that the fighting may intensify.
It is also said that it is only possible for one side to win outright if they receive assistance from outside countries, such as arms supplies, or if the other side is militarily weakened.
The report presents a thorough analysis of the global military security threat from the point of view of information that may affect the security of the United States. The nature of the report is to present a precise analysis of the situation without diplomatic words or organizing words, so the analysis of the Myanmar issue may be discouraging to the public, which expects the victory of Myanmar’s democracy soon.
Recently, a senior official from the US State Department said that Myanmar’s democracy efforts in 2023 may achieve some kind of success or decision. When a reporter continued to ask about that comment, he did not answer the question and reported that he had walked away.
The United States has enacted the US Defense Authorization Act, known as the NDAA, which includes providing $137 million in non-lethal aid to Myanmar. While there are hopes that the aid, called the Burma Act, will change the balance in the armed struggle for democracy in Myanmar, the intelligence report predicts that there will be no defeat or victory yet.
On the 2nd anniversary of the coup d’état on February 1 of this year, the report on Myanmar’s Political and Economic Prospects published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, an international business organization, also predicted the potential for armed conflicts in Myanmar. In the report, it has been said that there is currently no outright victory for one side in the military confrontation between the military council and the armed forces against the military council. Currently, if we assume that the forces on both sides are equal, it is predicted that the balance of the war can only be shifted if one side has superior military performance, and the ability to coordinate and develop winning strategies. It is also stated that although the military council cannot match the revolutionary forces in terms of morale, it can continue to wage the war in terms of material because it has access to the nation’s resources and taxes and can still control the plains, which are the strategic hubs of the nation in terms of economy and communication. The EIU report predicts that the intensity of fighting may decrease in the coming months and years, contradicting the US intelligence report.
According to the report, the need for the revolutionary forces will depend on the political organization, military performance, the ability to operate in unity, and the availability of weapons that can change the outcome of the battle.
As for the forces of the Myanmar Spring Revolution, in terms of organizing, it is natural to encourage and organize that victory is at hand, but it is necessary to analyze the current situation objectively and prepare to find a solution. If the fighting forces on the ground have collective action, the ability to share weapons and money, the ability to organize politically, the ability to fight together strategically, and the ability to organize politically to form alliances with ethnic armed organizations than previously, I think that we can bring about a change in the outcome of the current battle. Otherwise, as the armed conflict continues, the fighting ability of our forces and the pace of support from the public may weaken, so I think it is urgently necessary to properly review the current situation.