Myanmar Spring Chronicle – February 05 Scenes
MoeMaKa February 05 2023
Is the relationship between ethnic armed groups and the NUG the key to defeating the military council?
As we reach the 2-year mark of the military coup, news articles that review and evaluate that 2-year period, opinions, and reports from some Think Tank groups assembled by researchers have emerged. In the reviews and analysis reports, it has been pointed out that it is important to organize all ethnic armed organizations as much as possible in order to achieve the goal of overthrowing the coup army by armed means. According to a report by a large professional international Think Tank group describing the strength and alliance status of the internal armed groups in Myanmar, the force of the military council army, including the military, police, and border guard unit, is estimated at 180,000, and the force of the two ethnic armed groups that are allied with it is estimated at 10,000. On the NUG side, the ethnic armed forces that are fighting the military council in alliance with them are estimated at 40,000, and the PDF and LDF, which have been newly formed after the military coup, are estimated at 100,000.
This manpower status shows that the military council forces and the combined forces of ethnic armed organizations fighting alongside the NUG/PDF are balanced. The military council controls the plain areas of the country, the cities that are centers of transportation and trade, and the hubs of river transportation, and all the military, police, and armed forces are under one single command. It also brings awareness to the fact that the ethnic armed groups fighting alongside the NUG and the armed forces under the political leadership of the NUG do not have a single command system.
In a situation where there is a balance of forces, it is estimated that it is necessary to organize politically to be able to move with a single strategy under one command system. In addition, the PDF armed forces that emerged after February 2021 are not yet fully armed, and there is a situation where there are requirements such as ammunition, mechanisms and strategic weapons that can launch a large-scale war.
Moreover, if the NUG/PDF can organize some more ethnic armed groups rather than organizing more PDF members in order to make the current armed force superior to the military council, the armed forces that already have combat experience and are equipped with weapons will improve. Therefore, politically, it will be necessary to discuss that the goals they want and the federal union goals of the NUG government are the same.
This is one way to change the current military balance. Otherwise, the NUG must continue to maintain relations with the allied ethnic armed groups that are currently fighting and try to further increase the manpower of the PDF. According to the area, the areas where the majority of Burmans live, such as Magway, Sagaing, Mandalay, Bago Division will have to be relied on.
Looking back on the last 2 years, it is believed that in the next 2 years, the requirements for military success are not only money, but the ability to organize political consensus and organize the current armed forces will be the key factors for success.