Myanmar Spring Chronicle – February 16 Scenes
MoeMaKa, February 17 2023
Enemy’s strategy in another 6-month term
On February 1, the 2nd anniversary of the military coup, the military council that seized power held a meeting called Kalon (National Defence and Security Council), and for the first time after the military coup, the situation before the coup and the situation during the 2 years after the coup were presented with long presentations, and it was decided to extend its term by 6 months.
Until that time, there were indications that the election would be held as planned, but on February 1, it was decided to extend the current extension of the SAC board for another 6 months.
On the next day after this 6-month extension, martial law was declared in 37 townships. In the past 2 years, only a dozen towns were declared under martial law, but after this extension, 37 townships were declared, which clearly shows the intention to escalate the military. It is true that the intention is to escalate the military, but the situation on the ground has shown that the areas that the military council can rule and control are decreasing. It is estimated that the declaration of martial law is intended more to impose repressive rule and severely punish those arrested than to gain control of military territories. In the next 6 months, there is a possibility that there will be more aerial attacks on the main military bases of the ethnic armed organizations. There is a possibility that the military council may increase attacks targeting the main camps of ethnic armed groups that are providing weapons and training to the PDF.
On the other hand, since roads and waterways in the territories of Sagaing Division, Magway Division, Kachin State and Karen State are unable to control roads and waterways well, there are signs that they will rely more on air strikes than ground operations.
In these times, it is important for the armed forces fighting to overthrow the military council to assess the enemy’s strategy and respond with their advantages, integrated strategies and tactics.
It is not wrong to try and hope for the armed forces of the enemy military council to collapse, but rather than the collapse of the military council’s forces, the strategy of our side, which will respond to and defeat the enemy’s strategies and tactics, is more important.