Myanmar Spring Chronicle – January 24 Scenes
MoeMaKa, January 25 2023
The possibility of postponing the 2023 election; The RCSS leader arrived in Nay Pyi Taw for peace talks
According to what the military council said, the 2008 Constitution, and based on the assumed data that the military council would act, there were speculations that the election would be held in August 2023. Since the military council has been conducting operations to align the population census in the immigration department with the population census on the ground since early January, it is widely assumed that the 2023 election will certainly be held.
The leader of the military council, Min Aung Hlaing, also said in his recent meetings and speeches that the election would be held without a break.
The election to be held in 2023 may be an attempt or outlet by the military council to reduce international pressure. “Exit” doesn’t mean relinquishing power, but it can be said that it was an attempt to reduce pressure, to gain any recognition of legitimacy, to organize the supporters of the military and them, and to make a logical excuse.
In the VOA Myanmar news on January 24, when asking the military council spokesperson Zaw Min Tun about the matter of the election commission offices being attacked after a few days of press release, he said that the 2023 election, which is scheduled to be held, is uncertain as to whether it will happen this year or not. It was the spokesperson of the military council who said that whether the election can be held will depend on the situation.
Since the military council began to collect the population census on the ground in recent weeks, NUG-affiliated and non-affiliated PDFs have targeted election commission offices and those involved in the military council’s population census, and attacks have been conducted.
Nearly a dozen people who took the census on the ground were killed, 4 were arrested, and some of the commission’s office documents were burned.
It is also possible that the military council will use the PDF’s attempts to disrupt the election as an excuse to postpone the vote. The election is seen as an outlet for the military council to reduce pressure, but for other political forces, it is an unimportant event.
On the other hand, NUG, PDF and some ethnic armed groups have made a decision to prevent the military council from holding elections.
Another topic for today is that the SAC has released news that General Yawd Serk, the most responsible leader of the RCSS, one of the 2 Shan ethnic armed groups, has arrived in Nay Pyi Taw and met with General Yar Pyae, who is in charge of the Peace Negotiation Committee.
The RCSS, a Shan ethnic armed group that signed the NCA, is a group that has not fought with the military council since the military coup. It is not only the RCSS that is not fighting with the military council. Similarly, there are some other ethnic armed groups that have signed the NCA. Among the powerful organizations, groups such as the New Mon State Party have not returned to fighting with the military council.
It will be seen that the Pa-O National Liberation Army led by Khun Okka has no recurrence of fighting with the junta.
In Shan State, there are only 2 Shan ethnic armed groups, but there are many other ethnic armed groups that are active in different areas.
Wa, Kokang, Kachin and Shan border areas have the Kachin armed organization, the KIA, and there are many militia groups in northern Shan, so it is believed that the main strategy is not to lose the existing territorial dominance position and manpower.