Myanmar Spring Chronicle – August 02 Scenes
MoeMaKa, August 03 2022
Taiwan shadow over Myanmar issue & Russian Foreign Minister’s visit
The visit of the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to Taiwan was one of the most interesting political events of the week, and talk of the town reached its peak on the night of August 2nd. As the United States, which accepts the one-China policy in principle, the Speaker of the House of Representative’s official visit to Taiwan is seen by China as a violation of China’s sovereignty. China stated that It could be considered as a support to the idea of Taiwan as an independent country and it is said that the United States will be responsible for the consequences of retaliating against of this political violation.
Tonight, plans are even being made to address Taiwan’s official parliament, the day after Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrives in Taiwan. As for China, it has announced that the Navy and the Air Force will conduct military exercises around the island of Taiwan as a response.
Currently, it is still difficult to estimate how much the issue of Taiwan will affect on East Asia, Southeast Asia and Myanmar. However, the deterioration of relations between the United States and China would do instability in the eastern world risking of affecting trade among regional countries who were maintaining relationship with both super power countries. For Myanmar’s democracy issue might be placed in back stage by the neighbors and in lower priority in the strategies of powerful countries. It is not yet clear whether the US and China would use military might and turn a worse situation but it is a matter of concern.
Among social media users in Myanmar, there is a lot to talk about on the rivalry between China and the United States and they were choosing side on betting who would win in this said crisis like football match. Because they don’t like China’s foreign policy towards Myanmar especially on Chia’s over-protective policy to the military council, they like to cheer the team playing against China.
For this incident, expecting China invading Taiwan with the cost of political instability or conflict in the region would not benefit both community and the World.
Another fact is that the issue of Taiwan will not end with Nancy Pelosi’s trip, and there is a possibility that the Myanmar issue will sink under the global issue if it comes to the process of military competition and economic wars and, also a possibility that none of the countries in ASEAN and East Asia will be able to effectively participate in the Myanmar issue if more pressing regional conflicts occur.
Now, when the Taiwan issue comes up, it would be seen that even the attention on the Ukraine-Russia war, which has been going on for more than 5 months in Europe, may decrease. If there is military instability in East Asia, though the war in Europe is a war that cannot be forgotten by European countries, it can be reduced from being a top issue that will receive the top attention of the whole world. Like the Myanmar issue has reduced interest due to the Ukraine issue, and now, due to the Taiwan issue, the Myanmar issue may further be left behind.
In a condition like this, suddenly, TASS Russian News Agency reported on August 2nd that the Russian Foreign Minister would visit Myanmar and the day of his arrival would be August 3rd. When the Myanmar junta leader visited Russia, he could only meet with junior officials from the Defense Ministry and there was no meeting with Russian President Putin and the Foreign Minister. So, there were speculations that Russia would not take the Myanmar coup military council seriously. But now, the Russian Foreign Minister comes at a time when relations between China and the United States are tense and complicated in East Asia.
As the Russian Foreign Minister, he has visited some small African countries like Congo in the past few weeks and is building diplomacy. Since the United States and its allies such as Western European countries and Japan in East Asia have joined the economic sanctions against Russia, this visit may be a visit that Russia wants to show it has stronger ties with its allies.
China did not take part in the sanctions and condemnation of Russia in the Ukraine issue. Now in the East Asian issue on Taiwan, Russia will definitely support China. In conclusion, the tention between the world’s powerful countries would be more likely to have negative influance than positive for Myanmar’s democracy struggle. In a time like this, Myanmar’s democracy struggle and the need for humanitarian assistance are possibly sunk below other global agenda.