Myanmar Spring Chronicle – March 8 Scene
MoeMaKa, March 9, 2025
Northern Shan Region’s Territorial Dispute to be Resolved Through Public Consultation
KIA Deputy Chairman General Gun Maw has commented on social media that the ongoing conflict between KIA and TNLA forces in Kutkai, Northern Shan State, should be resolved by gathering public opinion and making a decision based on it.
In Northern Shan State, where Ta’ang, Kachin, and Shan ethnic groups predominantly reside, territorial boundaries controlled by various armed groups before Operation 1027 have significantly changed due to territorial conquests during the operation. The so-called central authority, currently the military regime led by Min Aung Hlaing, has lost control over certain areas. The MNDAA has taken over Kokang’s self-administered region and parts of Northern Shan State, while TNLA now governs areas within the Ta’ang self-administered zone and other regions. Meanwhile, KIA has also seized and governs some territories that were designated as the “Kachin Sub-state” during the British colonial era.
Historically, different ethnic groups migrated from southwestern China into what is now Northern Shan State, settling and establishing their own communities in various locations. According to historical records, Shan, Ta’ang, Kachin, Lisu, Kokang, Wa, and other ethnic groups have lived in Northern Shan State for generations.
Before British colonization in the early 1800s, these regions had their own governance systems. However, after the British colonized the entire country, they demarcated the territories, which later became part of the parliamentary democracy era following Myanmar’s independence. The long-standing ethnic armed resistance, which began after the 1947 civil war, has continued to challenge successive governments.
With the shifting power dynamics resulting from Operation 1027 and the recent military successes of ethnic armed groups, disputes over territorial control among these groups have become more prominent, leading to conflicts and disagreements. Apart from the KIA-TNLA dispute, there are also territorial issues between KIA and MNDAA, as well as between Shan armed groups and TNLA.
Although the region is named “Shan State,” emphasizing the majority Shan ethnic group, multiple ethnic groups coexist within the territory. However, notable Shan armed groups have not yet taken significant action in these recent territorial disputes.
As the military junta forces retreat, questions arise about how Shan State will be divided and governed. Should armed groups that successfully seize territories have the right to govern them, regardless of the historical presence of other ethnic communities? Should long-standing historical settlements be ignored?
Some ethnic armed groups argue that a “winner-takes-all” approach to territorial control, based on military conquest during Operation 1027, is not justifiable. On the other hand, groups that played a key role in the operation believe they cannot simply hand over control of these areas to other armed forces.
From a federal and democratic perspective, allowing local populations to determine their own governance aligns with democratic principles. However, questions remain about how public consultations would be conducted under the control of armed groups. Would such a process truly be free and fair? Would the ruling armed groups be willing to facilitate such a referendum?
If the KIA’s proposal for public consultation in Northern Shan State is accepted, similar demands might arise in Kachin State, particularly in areas where Shan Ni communities reside. If revolutionary armed groups genuinely accept public consultation as a principle, other regions could also see similar demands.
Beyond Northern Shan State, other ethnic regions may also push for referendums, potentially leading to the reevaluation of existing administrative boundaries in Shan, Kachin, Mon, and Karen States.