Myanmar Spring Chronicles – January 21 Perspective
MoeMaKa, January 22, 2025
The Impact of Trump’s Four Years on Myanmar’s Armed Revolution
On Donald Trump’s first day in office, following his inauguration as President of the United States, he signed a flurry of executive orders. This unprecedented pace of executive directives, numbering close to thirty on day one, clearly signaled his administration’s urgency to overturn the policies and decisions of the preceding Biden administration. These orders extended beyond U.S. domestic policy to touch on international affairs, including some anticipated impacts on Myanmar.
Myanmar likely held little significance for Trump, nor was it a priority for many of his appointees, several of whom lacked basic knowledge about the region. For instance, during confirmation hearings, Trump’s proposed Secretary of Defense could not even list the member states of ASEAN, highlighting the administration’s limited focus on Southeast Asia.
China’s Influence on Myanmar
China’s involvement in Myanmar, including pressuring ethnic armed groups to negotiate ceasefires with the military junta by threatening to close border crossings, might not even have registered with Trump or his administration. However, Trump’s appointees, including the Secretary of State, labeled China a threat to U.S. interests, fueling speculation of potential confrontations between the two powers. This dynamic could indirectly affect Myanmar, where China’s influence is deeply entrenched.
While Trump’s administration showed little interest in Myanmar’s affairs, the Myanmar public remained critical of China’s interventions, such as its role in the junta’s military operations and its pressure on armed ethnic groups like the Kokang to agree to ceasefires. These moves further alienated the Burmese people from the Chinese government.
U.S. Interests vs. Myanmar
Although Taiwan, the South China Sea, and trade issues were pressing matters for U.S.-China relations, Myanmar’s relevance to U.S. interests appeared minimal. Consequently, Myanmar’s struggles for democracy risked being sidelined.
Historically, U.S. administrations have imposed red lines on Myanmar, barring ethnic armed groups from forging connections with the U.S. However, Trump’s administration was unlikely to view these Chinese maneuvers in Myanmar as a significant concern.
Refugee Policies and Aid Cuts
Trump’s administration also marked a departure from previous U.S. policies by suspending programs for accepting refugees, including those from Myanmar, and halting international development aid for 90 days pending review. These measures significantly impacted U.S. support for Myanmar’s civil society, human rights, minority protections, and education sectors.
Implications for Myanmar’s Armed Revolution
The U.S. had previously provided moral and diplomatic support to Myanmar’s revolutionary forces rather than direct aid. With Trump’s administration deprioritizing Myanmar, this symbolic support diminished further. The focus on America’s economic interests, tech giants like Elon Musk’s ventures, and a tough immigration stance overshadowed global democratic movements.
Conclusion
Trump’s four years in office suggested a dim outlook for Myanmar’s pro-democracy movements, with reduced U.S. interest in pressuring the junta. While trade wars with China and tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea might escalate, Trump’s administration appeared unlikely to counter China’s influence in Myanmar or engage deeply with the region’s struggles for democracy.