Myanmar Spring Chronicle – January 13 Overview
MoeMaKa, January 14, 2025
Could the War Reach Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Magway Regions Bordering Rakhine State?
In recent months, the Arakan Army (AA) has expanded its control in southern Rakhine State, including Gwa Township, the southernmost township along the Rakhine coast. They have captured the Gwa-Ngathaingchaung highway checkpoint and extended their control along the western coastal borders of Rakhine. Fighting has also been reported along the eastern and southeastern borders of Rakhine, including areas bordering the Bago and Magway regions. Reports indicate that in some locations, AA has coordinated with locally formed People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) in joint attacks.
Concerns are growing about whether fighting might spread further into the Ayeyarwady Region, particularly areas like Ngathaingchaung on the western side, extending as far as Shwetaungyan in Pathein Township. Similarly, in Bago Region, speculation suggests that the conflict might spread westward from the Taungoo-Pantanaw highway to areas like Oatshitpin, near the western part of Bago. This has led some local residents to preemptively relocate.
AA’s Political and Strategic Objectives
Questions arise about AA’s intentions in areas bordering Rakhine. If AA continues military campaigns in these regions, what political justification would underlie their actions? While AA claims to fight for Rakhine’s liberation, it remains unclear whether they aim to annex territories within Ayeyarwady, Bago, or Magway regions.
Local PDF forces in Ayeyarwady, on the other hand, seek collaboration with ethnic armed groups capable of supplying weapons and leading strategic operations. PDFs are naturally drawn to the experience and leadership of groups like AA, which possess superior military strategies.
However, there appears to be a lack of mutual commitments or agreements between ethnic armed groups fighting for their people’s self-determination and broader alliances against the national military dictatorship.
Broader Context of Ethnic and Political Alliances
NUG (National Unity Government) and other ethnic armed groups face challenges in forming unified agreements on immediate and long-term political and military strategies. For non-ethnic regions like Bago, Magway, Sagaing, Yangon, and Mandalay, NUG represents the majority’s aspirations. But there remains a need for mutual understanding and cooperation in both military and political efforts, especially regarding territorial control and joint operations.
Historically, some areas annexed into Myanmar’s administrative divisions—such as Mogok in Mandalay—have raised questions about their ethnic identity and geographic alignment. Mogok, for example, is now under TNLA (Ta’ang National Liberation Army) control and part of their administrative zone.
Similarly, discussions around Rakhine State’s borders include speculation about whether some coastal areas of Ayeyarwady should be considered part of Rakhine State. Rakhine ethnic communities residing in these areas raise questions about territorial ties based on geographic and cultural factors.
Implications of Continued Conflict
Speculation about the continuation of fighting in these regions could lead to further disputes over land ownership, territorial alignment, and political narratives. As AA gains momentum in battles, decisions to extend military campaigns into new regions could become increasingly attractive.
Although it may not happen immediately, there is a possibility that fighting could reach Magway, Ayeyarwady, and Bago regions bordering Rakhine. Such developments underscore the evolving dynamics of Myanmar’s conflict landscape.