When Will a Solution Be Found for the Rohingya Issue in Rakhine State?

Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 16th Scene
(MoeMaKa, October 17, 2024)

When Will a Solution Be Found for the Rohingya Issue in Rakhine State?

The interim leader of Bangladesh, Mohammad Yunus, recently proposed creating a UN-guaranteed safe zone in Rakhine State to address the Rohingya refugee crisis. The safe zone would aim to provide aid to those displaced and address the humanitarian crisis. He shared this proposal in an interview with a Bangladeshi news agency, stating that it could help the refugees who fled their homes.

This proposal was mentioned during a meeting in Dhaka between Tom Andrews, the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar, and the Bangladeshi Prime Minister. It comes after Bangladesh has hosted nearly one million Rohingya refugees for seven years. Recently, Bangladesh saw significant political changes, including protests that resulted in hundreds of deaths, leading to the resignation of Sheikh Hasina, who had held the position of Prime Minister for 15 years. Mohammad Yunus, a respected figure in Bangladesh, took charge of the interim government.

While media reports describe former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina as close to China, Mohammad Yunus is seen as having closer ties with the United States.

Bangladesh, a small and densely populated country, has been hosting about one million Rohingya refugees for seven years, placing a heavy burden on its resources. This strain has worsened due to escalating conflicts in Myanmar’s Rakhine State following the military coup, which has led to an influx of additional refugees.

In recent months, the Arakan Army (AA) seized towns and border posts in Rakhine State, leading to hundreds more Rohingya refugees fleeing to Bangladesh. At the same time, Bangladesh’s political instability makes it harder for the country to accommodate more refugees.

The concept of a UN-controlled safe zone is not new. Bangladesh proposed a similar idea in 2019 during the tenure of Myanmar’s NLD government, but it was rejected. As a result, the plan never materialized.

Criticism regarding the handling of the Rohingya refugee situation in Bangladesh has been persistent. The lack of adequate international aid, armed violence within refugee camps, and the failure to curb crimes such as forced recruitment by armed groups have made the situation worse. The current interim government’s suggestion of a safe zone is likely motivated by a desire to prevent the acceptance of more refugees.

On the Myanmar side, the Rakhine State is still in conflict, with the military junta losing control over territories and the AA rapidly expanding its influence. Some armed Rohingya groups have allied with the junta to fight the AA, complicating efforts to resolve the issue.

There were accusations that the AA attacked fleeing Rohingya refugees with bombs during clashes in Maungdaw Township, killing hundreds. The AA denied these allegations. Additionally, Rohingya groups accused the AA of burning down Rohingya homes in Buthidaung, while the AA faced allegations of being attacked by Rohingya militias allied with the junta.

These tensions highlight the strained relationship between the AA and the Rohingya communities in Rakhine State, as well as the difficulties the AA faces in resolving the Rohingya issue. Relations between the AA and international organizations like the UN are also weak.

Given these circumstances, the proposal by Bangladesh’s interim government for a UN-administered safe zone seems unlikely to materialize. The military junta is unlikely to allow UN oversight in areas under its control, and the AA-controlled territories are also unlikely to welcome international intervention. Therefore, Mohammad Yunus’ proposal for a safe zone may remain far from becoming reality.

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