Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 15 Overview
(MoeMaKa) October 16, 2024
Ninth Anniversary of the NCA and the Prospects for Peace Talks, as the Junta Grows Closer to China
October 15 marks the ninth anniversary of the signing of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), and at a commemoration event in Naypyidaw, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing spoke about the NCA and the current political situation in Myanmar.
In his speech, Min Aung Hlaing described the NCA, signed on October 15, 2015, as an agreement reached after multiple negotiations with Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). While he praised the agreement, he accused some EAOs of breaking it and siding with the NUG (National Unity Government) and CRPH (Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw), even though others continue to adhere to the agreement.
After the military coup in February 2021, the NCA essentially collapsed. The military took full control of political power and annulled the results of the 2020 election, citing alleged electoral fraud by the NLD (National League for Democracy).
The collapse of the NCA has been seen as inevitable, given that the military, which played a significant role in the political process since 2011 under the USDP government and during the five-year NLD administration, seized full control of the power it had partially relinquished. As a result, the EAOs were pushed into a position where maintaining the NCA was no longer necessary. Now, the military, losing territory and bases, is attempting to prevent EAOs from forming a united front against them.
While it’s uncertain if the junta forces can be fully defeated within the next 6 to 12 months, the military’s continued struggle is notable. Since the coup, ethnic armed forces have achieved military successes not seen since 1952.
Some EAOs have stated that peace talks will only be possible if the military completely withdraws from politics. While a few EAOs remain uninvolved in active fighting, there is little to no collaboration between the junta and any EAO at this point.
Another major news event today is the announcement that Min Aung Hlaing will visit China. This will be his first visit to China as junta leader, nearly four years after the coup. Despite multiple visits to Russia, his absence from China has been notable. Historically, the Myanmar military has believed that China provided military support to certain ethnic groups, such as those in Shan State, which were in active conflict with the military. Recently, China has increased pressure on some of these ethnic groups, which could explain the recent warming relations between the junta and China.
China’s concern lies in preventing the fragmentation of Myanmar, particularly at its southwestern border with access to the Indian Ocean. The Chinese government’s recent policy shift was signaled during the visit of China’s Foreign Minister to Naypyidaw in mid-August. Now, only two months later, Min Aung Hlaing’s upcoming visit to China reflects this changing dynamic.