Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 23rd View
(MoeMaKa) October 24, 2024
Pressure on Northern Shan Armed Groups by Both the Military Junta and China, Four Bombings in Lashio in a Single Day
Following the takeover of Lashio in late July and early August by forces led by the MNDAA (Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army) alongside Burmese and other ethnic armed groups, the junta’s airstrikes initially decreased but have recently intensified, with more frequent bombings observed in recent days compared to previous weeks. As the junta continues airstrikes in Northern Shan State and parts of Kachin State in northeastern Myanmar, neighboring China has issued orders to limit the import of certain goods into Myanmar through border trade gates.
China has restricted the import of essential goods, electronics, fuel, and food from its side to Myanmar. It is widely understood that this move is intended to pressure the ethnic armed groups along the Chinese border to halt ongoing armed conflicts within Myanmar. A leaked meeting document from late August, where the Chinese special envoy to Myanmar met with leaders of the Wa armed group in China, confirmed these underlying motives.
China does not wish to see unexpected shifts in military or political power within Myanmar, nor does it want the current ruling military junta in Naypyidaw to visibly weaken. At the same time, China does not support the territorial expansion of ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar, as seen in the meeting records.
While some news outlets have linked China’s restrictions on border trade to the recent explosion near the Chinese consulate in Mandalay, it is more likely that China is exerting pressure on the northern ethnic armed groups to agree to a ceasefire. It remains to be seen how effective China’s pressure will be in halting the fighting in northern Shan State and Kachin State.
Mandalay, being a central trading hub, is connected to Kachin State and northern Shan State via strategic highways like the Union Highway. However, due to ongoing armed conflicts and roadblocks set up by the junta, northern Shan and Kachin regions have become reliant on essential goods and fuel supplies from China. Following China’s recent trade restrictions, prices for goods have started to rise again in Myitkyina.
In times of war, armed groups not only engage with their enemies but also pressure the local populations supporting the opposition, forcing them to reduce their support for the armed groups.
Similarly, areas under the control of the TNLA (Ta’ang National Liberation Army) and MNDAA in northern Shan are facing shortages of supplies. It remains to be seen how they will overcome these challenges.
Meanwhile, the junta has increased airstrikes on recently lost towns, targeting not only military objectives but also administrative and economic infrastructure. One of the targets hit yesterday included a liquor factory in Lashio.
After MNDAA captured Lashio, some residents had returned to their homes, and the Kokang armed group had actively resumed health and public services. However, with the increase in airstrikes, pressure is mounting on the residents to flee again.
While the junta’s airstrikes and China’s trade restrictions are significant challenges for the armed groups in northern Shan and Kachin, they do not necessarily force the groups to surrender. For the PDF (People’s Defense Forces) under the National Unity Government and local PDFs, their short-term goal may be to escalate efforts to cut off junta-controlled military outposts in rural areas and weaken the junta’s presence.