Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 22 Perspective
(MoeMaKa) October 23, 2024
Drone Attack on KNU Headquarters and the Southern Front
On the morning of October 22, a drone attack involving four drones bombed the headquarters of the KNU (Karen National Union) in KNU Brigade 7 territory in Hpa-An District. According to reports from KIC News, some buildings were damaged, but no casualties were reported.
Hpa-An District in Brigade 7 territory has been known as an area without armed conflict between the KNU and the military junta. Although no group has officially claimed responsibility for the attack, it is widely speculated that the junta forces were behind it. Some believe this might be a retaliation for a recent event where KNU/KNLA (Karen National Liberation Army) and allied forces captured a junta camp in the Lay Kay Kaw region of Myawaddy Township.
Out of the seven military zones under KNU/KNLA control, Hpa-An District’s Brigade 7 has remained relatively peaceful, making the drone attack on its headquarters an unexpected development.
Earlier this year, in March and April, KNU/KNLA and allied forces launched intense attacks on military camps along the border trade routes, especially near Myawaddy and Thinya-Nyaung villages. These operations nearly led to the capture of Myawaddy, but the BGF (Border Guard Force), which had rebranded itself as the Karen armed group led by Saw Chit Thu, intervened and returned control to the junta.
In 2024, the junta has lost territory in Rakhine State, northern Shan State, and Kachin State. Facing setbacks on many fronts, the military is struggling to retain control over its remaining territories, where soldiers have surrendered or been captured in the hundreds.
Meanwhile, China, wary of the collapse of the Myanmar military, has been pressuring ethnic armed groups in northern Shan State to cease fire. These groups have been facing difficulties in accessing necessary military supplies, which gives hope to the junta forces, prompting preparations for offensive campaigns to retake key areas like Lashio.
Against this backdrop, the drone attack on the KNU/KNLA headquarters can be seen as a show of force by the junta, indicating their ability to strike anywhere, even in the southern territories.
While the KNU/KNLA may not be as well-funded or heavily armed as some of the northern ethnic groups, it has supported the National Unity Government (NUG) and helped train People’s Defense Force (PDF) units and urban resistance fighters since their formation. This alliance has made the KNU a target for the junta.
Unlike the northern alliance between two ethnic groups and the AA (Arakan Army), there is no such united front in southern Myanmar. The KNU stands apart as a Karen ethnic armed group with different goals than the Mon, Tenasserim PDF, and other local forces. These groups, operating separately, provide breathing room for the junta in the southern front.