Myanmar Spring Chronicle – April 18 Scenes
MoeMaKa, April 19, 2024
ASEAN’s Call to Immediately Halt Attacks in Border Areas
In recent weeks, Myawaddy Township has come under the control of Karen armed groups after the Military Council’s military bases and battalions in Myawaddy Township, Karen State, fell into the hands of the KNLA and joint forces. As the Military Council’s reinforcements headed towards Myawaddy, the foreign ministers of the ASEAN countries issued a statement calling for an immediate cessation of armed attacks in Myanmar’s border areas, a resolution through dialogue, and the protection of civilian safety.
One of the recent battles near Myawaddy Town may have direct effects on neighboring Thailand. It can be assumed that Thailand has made this diplomatic request with the help of the ASEAN group. The statement by ASEAN and China regarding the conflict in Myanmar indicates a preference for resolving the current conflict between the military council and revolutionary forces through dialogue. The main question is whether dialogue can be a viable method among groups beyond the two main sides.
Among the forces in Myanmar, outright victory is the goal and position held by most groups. Even the military council, which has been losing significant control of territory and military strength this year, seems uninterested in finding a solution through dialogue despite its rapidly declining strength. As an armed force under a unified command, they may assume their army is the most powerful. The military council views the disparate interests and lack of a unified command structure among the opposing armed groups as significant weaknesses. They attempt to exploit these vulnerabilities to divide their opponents, making cooperation difficult.
ASEAN’s latest announcement encourages discussions to prevent the ongoing fighting in Myawaddy Town. Thailand is concerned about the security of Mae Sot Town, separated from Myawaddy by the Thaung Yin River, the need to assist war refugees who may enter en masse from the Myanmar side, and the potential impact on border trade between the two countries.
The situation differs from when China pressured ethnic armed groups to cease fire in its border areas. China exerts significant influence over ethnic armed groups in the border region, maintaining good relations through various means, including arms supplies, trade, and diplomatic ties. As a result, armed clashes that began in late October had to be stopped by early January due to China’s pressure, mediation, and ceasefire talks.
In contrast, the situation of the armed groups on the Thai border, the current relationship between the Thai and Myanmar governments, and the Thai military’s stance on the Myanmar issue differ from the situation on the Chinese border. ASEAN lacks the ability to exert practical pressure on the Myanmar Military Council or the ethnic armed groups like China can. ASEAN’s most severe punishment and pressure—denying military council leaders and government members attendance at meetings—stems from the military council’s failure to implement the 5-point ASEAN Consensus over the past three years.
Thailand, not being as powerful as China, and the differing views and interests of the Thai military and government regarding the Myanmar issue, contribute to the weakening of policies and actions on the Myanmar issue.
The Myanmar Military Council shows signs of attempting to use its military strength to regain control of Myawaddy. Comparing the losses in Laukkaing and Chin Shwe Haw with Myawaddy, it appears the military council still has an opportunity to deploy ground troops to counterattack and retake control of Myawaddy. Key questions include how far the military council’s ground troops will reach and how many reinforcements will successfully reach Myawaddy Town. The stance of the Saw Chit Thu-led armed forces (renamed KNA from the BGF group) based near Myawaddy between the military council and the KNLA will be an important factor.