Myanmar Spring Chronicle – July 26 Scenes
MoeMaKa, July 27, 2023
Potential of Myanmar political scene after August 1st
After 2 years of seizing state power citing the 2008 constitution, at the National Defence and Security Council – NDSC (Kalon) meeting held a day before February 1 of this year, the military council extended its seizure for another 6 months, defining the text as ”unstable situation”. The day after the extension, martial law was declared in more than 30 townships, and preparations were made to suppress armed resistance attacks by ethnic armed groups and people’s defense forces. After February 1 this year, junta columns invaded villages, killed suspects, burned houses, and used more airstrikes when military council camps, police stations, or convoys were attacked, causing the momentum of armed conflict to increase.
Last year, the military council talked about election preparation and voting issues, but in the past 6 months, the priority has been given to suppressing the armed resistance attack rather than the election. While the military council is saying that it will suppress armed resistance attacks, the activities of ethnic armed groups and people’s defense forces are also escalating. It will be seen that the areas where the armed forces are active against the military council, the areas where the battle took place, the frequency of the battle, etc. have expanded and increased. In Karen State, Mon State, and Bago Division, the KNLA and PDF forces have targeted and destroyed bridges and roads, trying to achieve their goal of cutting off the military council troops’ supply routes and making it difficult to deliver supplies and reinforce.
During this period, there was no significant increase in the number of military council forces surrendering and defecting to participate in CDM, but in some battles, there were more incidents of disobeying orders not to leave the camp, and disobeying orders to attack offensively. Another incident was when the Karenni National People’s Liberation Front (Kalalata), which had been transformed into a Border Guard Force, joined other armed forces in Karenni State fighting against the military council, and took part in the battles that seized the military base and the police station in Mese Township, Karenni State.
In the last 6 months, the military council has not made any military progress, and is in a position of intensively maintaining the existing areas, and there have been cases where the military bases have been temporarily or permanently given up in some states.
In this military situation, the military council forces are not able to weaken the strength of the resistance armed forces, and we will see a decrease in the security of the highways that connect each state or division to another. It will be seen that the armed forces fighting against the military council along the old Yangon-Mandalay Highway, and the road between Yangon, Thaton, Mawlamyine, and Dawei have become more active and dominant.
The above situation is leading to speculations as to whether the military council will try to find a political solution after the 6-month term. The emergence of these predictions is also based on some events. On July 9, Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Don Pramudwinai, was allowed to meet with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and the Thai minister expressed her support for unconditional dialogue at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (AMM).
In recent days, reports have surfaced that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been transferred from the Nay Pyi Taw prison to a housing compound where deputy ministers live, and speculation continues to emerge as to whether there will be discussions between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the military council. To put it simply, the situation has come down to whether the military council will not resolve the crisis in Myanmar by military means, but instead ask Daw Aung San Suu Kyi for help to find a way out of the current crisis after re-positioning her as a political leader who represents the public from the position of someone who is facing trial and being punished with an accusation for committing a crime.
It is possible that the military council is trying to find a way out of the current crisis with the hope or guess that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will not encourage armed movements and will urge finding a solution through political means.
As for the revolutionary forces, there may be forces that are determined to defeat the military council through military means, or there may be those who accept the idea that the political problem must be finally resolved around the table, and that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s role in Myanmar politics is still a key one. I would like to say that we are currently in a position where we have to think about the possibility of dialogue being offered, and, if it is offered, how to organize the forces on our side so that there is no division among each other.