Myanmar Spring Chronicle – July 25 Scenes
MoeMaKa, July 26, 2023
The military council’s political ploy to make use of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
After the news that Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Don Pramudwinai, had had the opportunity to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi on July 9, was publicly released by Thailand on July 11, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is once again expected to be the main focal person who can solve the problem in Myanmar politics.
I don’t think it would be wrong to say that even the news that the Thai Foreign Minister met Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in Nay Pyi Taw prison on July 9, had a big impact among the armed movement in Myanmar and the leaders of the National Unity Government living in neighboring countries and other countries.
For more than two years after the military coup, the coup leader refused to accept Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s involvement in political events by labeling her a criminal and under punishment. More than a dozen cases were filed against her with accusations of corruption, improper use of influence in elections, illegal purchase and use of walkie-talkies, and persecuting her for a total of more than 30 years in prison.
With the reason of being a perpetrator of those crimes, the military council rejected all requests from international representatives and diplomats to meet with her. Now, more than 2 years later, the military council arranged the meeting of the Thai Foreign Minister with her for the first time in a situation where the armed conflict is escalating in the country. A few weeks later, another news emerged that she had been moved to a house where important persons were kept outside the prison.
It can be guessed that when the military seized power, the military council would have the attitude of wanting to permanently remove Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from the political scene. Coup leader Min Aung Hlaing may have a personal grudge against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and he seems to not want to place references to her in political events and regard her as the main focal person.
However, based on the arrangement of the meeting of the Thai Foreign Minister with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in early July by the leader of the military council, it can be concluded that he wanted Aung San Suu Kyi to speak out for subsidizing the armed attacks.
If you think about whether Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will be acquitted of all the charges imposed by the military council, and will be allowed to stay freely at home, and re-register the NLD party with the remaining members at home, there is no possibility of such situations happening in the current condition.
The military council is certainly expecting comments from Aung San Suu Kyi that she does not support the current armed conflicts or the Spring Revolution with its armed resistance movement. However, as for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, I think she will not give any comment representing a political party on sensitive topics such as the armed movement, the National Unity Government, etc. in a situation where she is not allowed to meet with the imprisoned leaders of the NLD, and some of the leaders who have gone abroad, and hold discussions.
As for the military council, it is true that the escalating armed resistance, the abruptly increasing numbers of armed forces within the past 2 years even though they are unable to effectively collaborate, and the state of being able to purchase automatic rifles and ammunition that are enough to launch guerrilla warfare, though these are not powerful and destructive weapons, can shock the military council.
In this situation, it is obvious that the military council’s strategy to weaken the path of armed revolution is to lessen Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s imprisonment to a certain extent and subside the path of armed revolution.
Against the backdrop of brutal killings, severe human rights violations, and war crimes committed not only in villages and rural regions but also in cities during these two years, the revolutionary forces who have chosen the armed path will not want to engage in any kind of discussion or negotiation. They will want to continue attacking with the goal of defeating the military council forces till the end. Some of the people living in rural and urban areas may assume that at some point they will have to choose discussion and negotiations.
It is because armed conflicts have forced people living in villages to flee, their property being destroyed, their family members losing their lives, and making them no longer able to farm and raise livestock for a living and rely only on aid. So, they want to escape from the situation where they are.
At present, such a situation has not yet been reached, but in the near future, there may be a crossroads of options such as the armed path and the dialogue path, and there is a possibility that the forces on the revolutionary side will be divided. It will be necessary to think about and prepare in advance for how to find a solution in facing such a situation.