Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 11 Scenes
MoeMaKa, November 12 2022
ASEAN’s 5-Point Consensus that has been set a time limit; ASEAN may be likely to engage with NUG
At the annual ASEAN meeting held in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, discussions and decisions regarding Myanmar were made. The military council, which has seized military power in Myanmar, was omitted from the 2021 annual meeting and this year’s meeting without being invited. They decided not to invite the meetings because the Myanmar Military Council failed to implement the 5-Point Consensus agreed upon in April 2021. Since there has been no progress on the 5-Point Consensus even after one and a half years, it was decided that the meeting would include a time limit and work on it. The time frame is not specified.
The question is whether the ASEAN 5-Point Consensus is still relevant in the current situation or whether ASEAN can effectively intervene in Myanmar’s affairs. There are also questions as to what ASEAN can do to pressure the Myanmar military council or persuade the military council to do what it should do. If you ask the question of whether ASEAN is in a position to block the finances necessary for the military council to continue to control power or whether it is possible to prevent the purchase of military weapons, the answer is no. The sources of income for the military council are natural gas, minerals, and foreign currency earned from exporting the country’s agricultural and livestock products. As income comes not only from ASEAN’s purchases but also from trading with other countries, there is less chance of blocking these income routes. There are also opportunities for Myanmar to communicate with other countries like China.
As the military council is purchasing weapons not from ASEAN countries but mainly from countries like Russia, it is a difficult situation to block the purchasing of weapons as well as its income.
Being a member of the ASEAN countries, the military council wants to gain the political prestige of being a member of a group of countries within the region, and it is estimated that they are determined not to let ASEAN intervene in their objective to control power.
When we look at the opinions of the military council and the decisions of the ASEAN side, it is believed that the decisions of the current ASEAN meeting may be less likely to put effective pressure on the military council.
As a consequence of the Myanmar issue, neighboring countries may face problems such as refugees arriving across the country, the problem of illegal labor, humanitarian aid, the problem of drugs entering the country, and an increase in transnational crimes.
It is in the news that ASEAN has made a decision to engage more with the NUG government following the Phnom Penh meeting. It does not mean that NUG is recognized as a government, but rather that NUG is defined as a group to be engaged with. As one step by ASEAN to put pressure on the military council, it can be considered a diplomatic success. As ASEAN countries within the region, by designating NUG as an organization that will communicate in Myanmar’s affairs, it is expected that such formal communication routes will be used in matters of helping internally displaced people and putting pressure on human rights violations in Myanmar.