MoeMaKa June 17 2022
Political crisis in Myanmar and assistance from regional countries
Neighboring and ASEAN countries will notice that the current armed clashes, hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people, the refugee issues across the border, smuggling of drugs and resources have an impact on regional countries and some are making profit from this situation.
Thailand has become the country to accept refugees from Myanmar temporarily and even before this coup, because of the offensive against Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs) after 1988, there have been 7 to 8 refugee camps with hundreds of thousands of refugees along the border for decades.
Now after the military coup, the clashes along the border escalate and thousands of people have to flee. Thailand’s ruling generals have a close relationship with the military council and on the other hand, due to the urge from the strategic alliance countries like US, Thailand has chosen a policy of tuning a blind eye on humanitarian aid flowing through and letting oppositions residing in Thailand.
Because of armed conflicts in Myanmar, increased production of drugs and exported through Thailand to all over the world, the problem with illegal immigration of hundreds of Myanmar people into Thailand, becoming a crossroads between workers and Rohingya who head to Malaysia through Thailand and increased activities of Thai arm smuggling gangs to sell arms to armed groups in Myanmar have become the issues to watch out for. It is not wrong to say that the issues have both advantages and disadvantages.
China has influence over some ethnic armed groups and according to the facts that Myanmar is the route for China’s energy transport, the sea trade outlet for Yunnan Province, bordering with India and Myanmar’s involvement in the OBOR project, which aims to build trade routes around the world have become points to consider strategically. On the other hand, because instability in Burma could have devastating consequences not only for Burma but also for China, the basic policy for China may be to have a relationship with a stable ruler rather than who is in power.
As for another bordering country, India is not involved in Myanmar’s affairs and has a contact with persons in power. India stands for neutral even in the case of the Russia-Ukraine affair which discriminate between black and white and also on the Myanmar issue, it keeps a distant relationship with the opposition government, NUG.
The current Prime Minister of India has a strong emphasis on nationalism and unlike the descendants of former PM Nehru, it can be seen that he is not significantly involved in Myanmar’s affairs as he has no significant personal ties with the opposition persons.
Among the Asian countries not bordering with Myanmar, Pro-democracy countries like the Philippines and Indonesia have no close contact with opposition groups even though they don’t support the military council.
As for Malaysia, which put pressure on Myanmar military and ruling government during the Rohingya’s case previously, it has become a country which urges to put more pressure on the military council after the current coup in Myanmar. It is not clear whether the Rohingya issue is Malaysia’s main agenda or intended to put pressure on the military dictatorship because it does not want any possible instability in the region.
Many Asean countries agree to put diplomatic pressure on the military council, but they don’t want economic sanctions or restrictions. As for countries like Singapore and Thailand, they don’t encourage strikes and economic sanctions like western countries due to enormous investments in Myanmar.
These situations are Myanmar’s neighboring and ASEAN countries’ strategies and diplomatic relationships with Myanmar. As opposition, it can be seen that NUG, NUCC and CRPH are making efforts to increase recognition by the United Nations diplomatically.
On the other hand, I think it is necessary to evaluate the percentage of diplomatic efforts that can change the outcome of a victory.
After a clear understanding of which battle’s front is the most crucial and then put more effort to the main front with the support of other fronts and not to spend unnecessary extra effort to other fronts.