Myanmar Spring Chronicle – Scenes from July 26
(MoeMaKa), July 27, 2026
What Impact Could the SCEF–Arakan Army Meeting Have?A
Reports in recent days indicate that leaders of the Steering Committee for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union (SCEF), which was formed only a few months ago, held an online meeting with Arakan Army (AA) Commander-in-Chief Major General Twan Mrat Naing.
Many observers view the meeting as significant because the AA has become one of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armed organizations. Since its founding just over a decade ago, the AA has expanded from a small force into an army numbering in the tens of thousands. It has captured major military headquarters, regional commands, and naval bases in Rakhine State, while also extending military operations into neighboring Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Magway Regions.
The AA maintains alliances with several northern ethnic armed organizations, including the TNLA, MNDAA, KIA, and UWSA, but has generally kept closer ties with those groups than with organizations linked to the National Unity Government (NUG). Since the 2021 military coup, cooperation between the AA and the NUG has remained limited.
The reasons for this are not entirely clear. Some analysts suggest the AA may have sought to avoid tensions with China because of the NUG’s closer relationships with Western countries. Others point to past differences over issues such as the Rohingya, where the AA publicly criticized some of the NUG’s statements and positions.
Although the recent meeting was not directly between the AA and the NUG, the SCEF includes both ethnic resistance organizations and the NUG as key participants. Therefore, the talks can be seen as dialogue with a major political and military body in which the NUG plays an important leadership role.
According to SCEF, discussions focused on humanitarian assistance following the recent flooding in Rakhine State, the current political situation, and future priorities.
When SCEF was established, its founding members included the KIO, KNU, CNF, KNPP, and the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH). The committee has also stated that it intends to expand membership by inviting additional ethnic armed organizations and federal units. This has led to speculation that the meeting may have included efforts to encourage the AA to join SCEF, although no public confirmation has been given.
A recent report by the U.S.-based Jamestown Foundation estimated that the AA now fields around 40,000 troops, making it one of the largest non-state armed groups in East Asia. Within Myanmar, it has become the country’s second-largest ethnic armed organization after the United Wa State Army (UWSA).
Despite its growing strength, the AA has so far avoided joining alliance structures centered around southern ethnic armed organizations. While it maintains working relations with the KNU, it appears unlikely to become a member of SCEF, which currently includes the KNU, KIA, KNPP, and CNF.
Instead, the AA has focused on building strategic partnerships with armed groups operating in neighboring Chin State and the Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwady Regions. It has reportedly cooperated with some local People’s Defence Force (PDF) units by providing weapons and ammunition for joint operations in those areas.
These patterns reflect the AA’s broader military and political strategy. In previous interviews, Major General Twan Mrat Naing has expressed support for an arrangement resembling the level of autonomy enjoyed by the United Wa State Army, which operates with extensive self-governance while remaining largely independent of Naypyidaw’s authority over budgeting, administration, immigration, and elections. Such aspirations are closer to a confederation-style model than the federal democratic union envisioned by SCEF.
Because the AA and SCEF may have different long-term political goals, observers believe that cooperation between them is more likely to remain focused on military coordination and practical cooperation rather than evolving into a deeper political alliance.