Myanmar Spring Chronicle – Scenes from May 10
(MoeMaKa), May 11, 2026
The junta’s misguided economic policies that the public is suffering under
On February 28, the United States—which exerts global dominance—and the Israeli government led by Netanyahu, which has been expanding territory in pursuit of a “Greater Israel” in the Middle East, launched attacks on Iran. As a result, a global fuel crisis emerged.
With no clear end in sight to the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, countries around the world that rely on importing oil and natural gas have been forced to implement fuel-saving measures.
Myanmar, although it produces a certain amount of natural gas, exports most of it abroad and still has to import a portion of its oil and refined fuel from foreign companies. As such, it is among the countries most directly affected by the ripple effects of the U.S.–Iran war.
In response to the global fuel and gas crisis, the military junta moved quickly—within a week—to implement fuel-saving measures aimed at reducing the use of foreign currency (U.S. dollars) for fuel imports. They introduced a policy restricting the use of private vehicles based on odd/even license plate numbers. This applied to most vehicles except taxis, cargo trucks, and emergency or medical vehicles. The fuel-saving plan began on March 7.
However, the junta failed to consider how these measures would impact key sectors of the economy such as agriculture, livestock, trade, and services. The policies were decided unilaterally by coup leader Min Aung Hlaing, while government ministers are in no position to present opposing views or critical findings.
There has also been no clear plan for how fuel would be allocated to the country’s primary economic sector—rice and other crop agriculture. As a result, harvesting and transporting crops to market has become more expensive, and in some cases, farmers are abandoning harvests because they are no longer profitable.
Reports and social media posts show that machine harvesting costs have surged dramatically, and farmers are now required to procure fuel themselves. A widely shared video even shows a farmer kicking sacks of harvested rice in frustration and declaring he will not farm next year.
In regions already suffering from civil war, farmers have long struggled to transport crops to market or store them properly, forcing them to sell at low prices and incur losses. The recent spike in fuel prices and shortages has only worsened these conditions—like adding fuel to the fire.
The junta appears not to understand these realities. Instead, it views the reduction in fuel imports as a success due to decreased foreign currency usage. It even proudly announced a roughly 40% drop in fuel consumption.
Previously, Myanmar imported about $5 billion worth of fuel annually. With the new austerity measures, that figure has reportedly dropped by over $2 billion. However, the junta ignores the fact that fuel prices have risen significantly and fails to account for the economic damage caused across sectors by these restrictions.
Even after more than two months of conflict in the Middle East, the odd/even vehicle restriction policy remains in effect. Fuel purchases are still being rationed based on license numbers, engine power, and quotas. The junta continues to highlight reduced foreign currency usage while ignoring the broader economic harm.
Another major policy failure is the strict restriction on imports of essential goods and medicines. With border trade routes to China in northern Shan State still disrupted, and trade along the Thailand–Myanmar border nearly halted for years, people inside the country are facing shortages of daily necessities and medicines—or must pay exorbitant prices.
Since the launch of Operation 1027 in October 2023, the Mandalay–Lashio–Muse trade route to China has been cut off. Limited trade has continued through Mong La in eastern Shan State, but due to high transport costs and various constraints, it has dropped significantly compared to previous levels.
Similarly, along the Thai border, fighting around Myawaddy disrupted trade routes, bringing them close to a standstill. Subsequent crackdowns on illegal trade—including arrests of drivers and confiscation of goods—have led to shortages of Thai products in the domestic market and steep price increases that have persisted for years.
After tightening control over border trade, exchange rates between the Myanmar kyat and foreign currencies like the U.S. dollar and Thai baht have remained relatively stable over the past 1–2 years, creating the impression that the kyat has strengthened. The junta appears to believe that restricting border trade reduces foreign currency demand and helps stabilize the exchange rate.
In reality, even if the kyat has not further depreciated, prices of essential goods and medicines inside the country have surged, placing them increasingly out of reach for ordinary people.
Despite these clear signs and impacts, the junta leadership continues to focus only on two points: that the kyat has not collapsed, and that foreign currency usage has decreased due to fuel austerity. It portrays these as successes while ignoring the worsening hardship faced by the public—where livelihoods are becoming unsustainable and survival itself is increasingly difficult.
This denial of reality is steering the country toward a deeper economic crisis, the consequences of which are likely to be felt in the near future.