Myanmar Spring Chronicle – Scenes from April 26
(MoeMaKa), April 26, 2026
Will the Spring Revolution be long-term, and what needs to be adjusted?
Now that more than five years have passed since the Spring Revolution began—sparked by the military coup on February 1, 2021, with the aim of opposing military dictatorship—it is time to reassess its nature, its duration, the various hardships endured by the public, and the path forward. This is a moment when reflection is needed, along with honest communication to the people about what lies ahead.
In the early days of the Spring Revolution, there were efforts to inspire morale and mobilize the public. Promises were made—some of which could not be fulfilled. Even if apologies are not explicitly demanded, those responsible—leaders and organizations—should learn from these experiences and move forward with honesty and accountability, both toward the revolutionary forces and the public.
Some leaders who strongly encouraged armed resistance in early 2021 should now take a closer look at the hardships faced by the people and provide responsible explanations regarding their past statements.
When the movement transitioned from peaceful protests to armed resistance, many claims were made that victory would come within six months or a year. A large portion of the public believed these assertions. As a result, many postponed critical aspects of their lives—such as their children’s education, livelihoods, and even COVID-19 vaccinations—waiting for the revolution to succeed first.
During the peak months of the COVID-19 crisis—July, August, and September 2021—many people even refused vaccination services provided under the military regime, viewing them through a political lens. Similarly, when schools reopened, many parents chose not to send their children back, deciding instead to wait until the revolution was over. While it was difficult to influence older students, many parents deliberately paused the education of primary and middle school children. These decisions can be seen as influenced by the messaging of political leaders at the time.
Likewise, many who contributed financially to the revolution believed it would succeed within one or two years. People donated everything they had—gold, jewelry, and savings. In rural areas especially, farmers and workers removed earrings, rings, and other valuables to support the revolution, hoping for its success and for the victory of their children and grandchildren who had joined the armed struggle.
Given such sacrifices, it is important to consider how people feel now that the revolution has become prolonged. Today, not only political actors but also ordinary citizens have come to realize that the armed revolution is unlikely to achieve victory overnight. The point is not to assign blame for the lack of immediate success, but to highlight the failure to honestly communicate from the beginning that this would be a long-term struggle.
This is not to say that choosing the path of armed resistance was right or wrong. Rather, it is to point out that it was unrealistic to assume such a struggle could succeed within six months or a year.
Looking at global history, very few armed revolutions have succeeded within such a short time frame. Like many others, Myanmar’s Spring Revolution may take years or even decades—requiring the building of armed forces, gaining military experience, and accumulating necessary resources and weapons. This becomes clear when examining history objectively.
Myanmar’s own history—including over seven decades of civil war and the post-independence conflicts from 1949 to 1952—also shows that the Spring Revolution, which emerged after the 2021 coup, is not a struggle that will end quickly.
After more than five years, it is now time for the leadership of the Spring Revolution to reassess both military and political strategies and to recalibrate a path forward.
Another concern is that many political leaders are operating from outside the country while issuing directives, which raises ethical questions and weakens the sense of shared struggle and unity.
If the position remains that the armed struggle will continue, and that negotiations with the military regime are not possible unless the military fully withdraws from politics, then it becomes even more crucial to develop long-term strategies and plans. At the same time, leaders must responsibly inform the public and urgently help people find ways to sustain their lives over the long term.