Myanmar Spring Chronicle – Scenes from April 29
(MoeMaKa), April 30, 2026
Potential Impacts of Iran–U.S. War, Fuel Shortages, and Myanmar’s Agriculture
After the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, Iran initially blocked the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical routes for transporting oil and natural gas. The United States later imposed further restrictions, leading to sharp increases in global prices of oil, natural gas, and related products such as fertilizer derived from natural gas. Oil prices rose from around $70 per barrel before the conflict to approximately $100 or more afterward.
Global oil prices now depend heavily on negotiations between the countries involved in the conflict. The United States and Israel had initially assumed the war would last only days or a few weeks, but that calculation proved wrong. As the conflict has reached two months, there are still no clear prospects for an end to the war or for reopening trade routes.
Although the impacts of the Iran–U.S. war are global, countries that rely heavily on oil and gas from the Persian Gulf are being hit hardest. East Asian countries that depend almost entirely on these imports are particularly affected. Among them, nations with limited strategic reserves are suffering the most. While countries like Japan, China, and South Korea have sufficient reserves to avoid severe disruption, countries such as the Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar are experiencing stronger impacts. Among these, Myanmar is likely to face the worst consequences due to its ongoing civil war.
Large parts of Myanmar are controlled by different armed groups, and in some areas, the military junta has imposed additional blockades on fuel, food, and medicine. As a result, the country is facing not only global shortages and rising prices but also internal restrictions.
In regions like Rakhine State, the military has imposed trade blockades for years, allowing only limited transport to areas it controls such as Sittwe and Kyaukphyu. For local residents, rising fuel prices have significantly increased agricultural costs, while restrictions on transporting goods to other regions make it difficult to sustain livelihoods through farming.
Reports indicate that fertilizer prices have surged significantly since the Iran conflict began. In Myanmar, prices in some areas have risen more than two to nearly three times. There are also reports of large discrepancies between prices listed in major cities like Yangon and Mandalay and the actual prices faced in agricultural regions.
Rising fuel costs and limited availability have sharply increased transportation expenses. In addition, along trade routes between regions, checkpoints and toll gates operated by armed groups impose irregular and often excessive taxes, leading to significant price differences for goods between areas.
With the monsoon season approaching—when fertilizers are needed for planting—the combination of soaring fertilizer prices, high fuel costs, and supply shortages is likely to severely impact agricultural production.
Myanmar’s agricultural sector, already weakened by civil war, is becoming even more vulnerable due to rising and scarce fuel and fertilizer supplies. However, there has been little visible urgent action from the military government to address these challenges.
The only notable development reported recently is that the junta’s energy minister traveled to Moscow at the invitation of Russia’s energy minister to discuss trilateral energy security cooperation between Myanmar, China, and Russia. There has been no clear reference to addressing the immediate crisis.
From one perspective, the junta’s loss of control over large parts of the country reduces its responsibility for conditions in those areas. Economic and food security issues in territories controlled by ethnic armed organizations, the NUG, and local defense forces may not be seen as directly its concern. In some cases, blockades may even be intended to pressure opposing armed groups.
For ethnic armed organizations and resistance forces, there is a growing responsibility to develop and implement policies and plans to support agriculture and ensure food security for civilians living in the areas under their control, despite the difficult conditions.