Myanmar Spring Chronicle – July 1 View
(MoeMaKa, July 2, 2025)
Thailand’s Political Instability and Its Impacts on Myanmar Nationals
In neighboring Thailand, where estimates suggest between 3 to 6 million Myanmar nationals currently reside, the recent political turbulence has raised concerns about its implications on migrant workers and exiles from Myanmar. Among them are CDM (Civil Disobedience Movement) participants, pro-democracy activists, human rights defenders, journalists, and members of the resistance movement, many of whom have been living in Thailand for years due to the crisis back home.
In Mae Sot, a key Thai-Myanmar border trade town, unprecedented arrests and inspections have taken place in recent weeks—not only on the streets but even extending into residential neighborhoods. Businesses catering to the Myanmar community, such as restaurants, convenience stores, beauty salons, and barber shops, have reportedly been raided under the claim of violating Thai labor laws.
Observers note that such intensive crackdowns are the most severe seen in over two decades.
Amid this, Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was suspended from duty by the Constitutional Court. The decision followed the public release of an audio recording in which he conversed with Hun Sen, the powerful Cambodian figure who once handed power to his son and still wields significant influence. The fallout forced the Thai government to reshuffle its leadership.
Tensions are also simmering along the Thai-Cambodian border, where both countries have placed troops on alert. At the same time, one of the coalition parties in Thailand’s unity government withdrew, triggering further instability. On Sunday, thousands of protesters marched in Bangkok demanding Prime Minister Srettha’s resignation.
Thailand’s economic slowdown has also fueled ultranationalist sentiments, with some calling for stricter enforcement against Myanmar migrants. In Mae Sot, this has resulted in arrests, detentions, and even deportations.
It’s important to note that Thailand’s democracy is incomplete. Though elections are held, the military has long maintained dominance in politics. Historically, elected governments have been overthrown or weakened through judicial or military maneuvers whenever they are perceived as a threat to the military’s interests.
In this context, a potential military coup in Thailand would not surprise many. Over the past two decades alone, Thailand has experienced two coups—in 2006 and 2014—followed by periods of military-led constitutional rewrites and delayed elections.
Despite the superficial similarity of military coups in both Myanmar and Thailand, their underlying dynamics differ significantly. Thailand has not descended into civil war like Myanmar. One key reason is that Thai coups typically do not dismantle the foundational systems of economy, education, or public services. Rather, they represent power shifts among elites—between political parties, military leaders, and business tycoons. As a result, Thailand’s middle and working classes have not experienced the same disruptive upheaval.
While the recent crackdowns on Myanmar nationals may be related to political instability, the primary driver seems to be Thailand’s economic downturn. Politicians may also be using migrant inspections to deflect domestic discontent or win public approval.
On July 2, Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) issued a public advisory urging Myanmar nationals in Thailand to remain uninvolved in Thai political protests and to respect local laws, customs, and culture. The statement also expressed gratitude to Thailand’s King, government, parliament, and military for their past support, and reassured that Myanmar people ultimately intend to return to a peaceful, democratic homeland.
For now, Myanmar nationals in Thailand must balance two urgent priorities: earning a living in difficult economic times and navigating tighter enforcement of Thai immigration and labor laws with caution and resilience.