Myanmar Spring Chronicle – June 21 View
(MoeMaKa, June 22, 2025):
Thailand on the Brink of a Military Coup — What It Could Mean for Burmese People Living There
Thailand is once again on the brink of a possible military coup, something that has become a recurring theme in the country’s modern history — at least once every decade. This time, the political storm appears to be circling back once again.
In 2006, the current Prime Minister Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin’s father, then-PM Thaksin Shinawatra, was ousted by a military coup. Again in 2014, his sister Yingluck Shinawatra was overthrown by the military. These two coups in the past 20 years both involved the Shinawatra family. Now, under the leadership of Srettha, the next generation of the Shinawatra political legacy, Thailand faces similar instability.
Thailand’s political landscape has long been shaped by military figures, royalists, and their allied political elites. Since the Red Shirt–Yellow Shirt street clashes in 2009–2010 — which involved prolonged unrest, violence, and arson — the country has struggled to stabilize. The last civilian-led democratic administration widely acknowledged was that of PM Chuan Leekpai in the 1990s. Since then, Thai democracy has been pulled back and forth, stalling under military or royalist pressure.
Now, as political tensions rise again, it is unclear how far this instability will go — or whether a full coup will materialize.
This uncertainty carries potential consequences for the millions of Burmese migrant workers in Thailand, as well as for anti-junta activists, CDM participants, journalists, and members of the NUG (National Unity Government) living in exile. Should the military seize power again, there’s strong concern that support for Myanmar’s resistance movement will shrink under a more authoritarian Thai regime.
Military-to-military ties between Myanmar and Thailand have been consistent since 2002. Regardless of which civilian government was in place, Thailand’s military and Myanmar’s junta shared aligned strategic and economic interests.
Even now, under Thailand’s civilian government, there have been tightened regulations and occasional arrests of Myanmar migrants. If a Thai military regime returns, these measures are expected to intensify, including detentions, forced deportations, and suppression of political activity.
In recent days, authorities in Mae Sot, near the Thai–Myanmar border, have begun confiscating e-bikes, motorized tricycles, and checking documents of drivers. Burmese migrants there are facing increased police raids, shop closures, and withdrawal of children from schools. Many believe this is part of a broader crackdown, driven by economic slowdown and political anxiety.
Given this backdrop, a future military government in Thailand would likely worsen conditions for migrants and exiles, especially those without legal status.
The potential impact goes beyond politics: economic instability in Thailand could also limit job opportunities, tighten border controls, and increase anti-immigrant scrutiny — especially toward low-income Burmese workers.
Thailand’s democratic fragility is directly linked to the wellbeing of Burmese migrants, who fled to Thailand due to Myanmar’s own political chaos and conscription laws. Many now live and work in Thailand — both legally and illegally — and are watching these developments anxiously.
While wealthier Burmese migrants may be able to weather the fallout, working-class migrants and political asylum seekers are at greater risk.
Thailand has, until now, been a critical place of asylum and refuge for Myanmar’s anti-junta resistance — unlike India, where only the Mizoram state has allowed ethnic Chin refugees to shelter. For many CDM civil servants and revolution supporters, Thailand remains the only viable safe haven.
That’s why Thailand’s political fate is being watched so closely — not just within its borders, but by the entire region. If another coup occurs, Thailand would become the second ASEAN country after Myanmar to fall back under military rule in recent years — something many hope to avoid.