Myanmar Spring Chronicle – April 12 Snapshot
MoeMaKa, April 13, 2025
Hope of a Path to Peace from the Earthquake Disaster Fades
The devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar’s central Dry Zone—particularly the key cities of Mandalay, Sagaing, and the junta-controlled capital Naypyitaw and Pyinmana—caused widespread destruction: loss of lives, damaged homes, collapsed roads, bridges, and critical healthcare infrastructure. Schools were also heavily affected, with many buildings destroyed. As the focus shifted to emergency rescue and reconstruction efforts, some political analysts hoped this catastrophe might lead to a cessation of armed conflict and a step toward peace.
Drawing parallels from other countries where natural disasters led to temporary ceasefires and even long-term peace agreements, some observers speculated whether the same could happen in Myanmar. In such international cases, warring factions have sometimes halted their offensives to focus on disaster relief, later opening channels for negotiation and de-escalation.
However, others criticized this perspective, arguing that such optimism downplays the complex realities of Myanmar’s civil war. Some accused these narratives of favoring the junta’s stance or acting as appeasers in the name of peace. These critiques spread widely across social media and even appeared in mainstream news outlets.
Around the same time, the National Unity Government (NUG) issued a unilateral two-week ceasefire declaration. Following suit, the Northern Brotherhood Alliance (comprising three ethnic armed groups) also announced a temporary pause in their military offensives. The junta made a similar statement, and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) joined in with its own ceasefire announcement. All of these ceasefires were time-limited, ranging from two to four weeks.
Despite these declarations from NUG, the junta, and ethnic armed organizations, fighting continued on the ground. The junta’s airstrikes did not stop, and resistance forces continued their offensives or defensive actions, including efforts to reclaim territory.
The unilateral nature of these ceasefire announcements—made without mutual agreement or direct communication—led many to see them as politically motivated gestures rather than genuine steps toward peace.
Now, more than two weeks after the earthquake and on the eve of the Thingyan (Water Festival) holidays, the situation has shifted from emergency response to the reconstruction phase. In affected regions, people are now working to remove debris and rebuild temporary shelters.
But even before the ceasefire periods have fully lapsed, the hope that the earthquake disaster might catalyze a path to peace has already dimmed. Battles continue across multiple regions including Naga, Kachin, Chin, Sagaing, Karen, and Tanintharyi. The junta has lost control of two towns, with over 100 troops captured, including a battalion commander.
During the earthquake period itself, Chin resistance forces and NUG-aligned PDFs (People’s Defense Forces) took control of Falam and Htantlang towns. In retaliation, the junta launched airstrikes on villages in Tedim, Min Dat, and Wuntho townships, resulting in over 40 civilian deaths in a single day.
These retaliatory airstrikes are widely viewed as punishment for losing control of towns. The broader picture shows that, despite the earthquake disaster, the armed actors have not backed down from their territorial ambitions or military objectives.
A UN human rights spokesperson recently urged the junta to respect the ceasefire declarations. In recent days, the UN Special Envoy to Myanmar also visited Naypyitaw and met with the junta’s foreign minister.
Ultimately, since the military junta—the main antagonist in Myanmar’s armed conflict—has shown no real intention of pursuing a genuine ceasefire, rebuilding efforts in central and northern Myanmar must now proceed in the midst of ongoing warfare.