Myanmar Spring Chronicle – March 10
MoeMaKa, March 11, 2025
Statements from the Coup Leader Returning from Russia and Belarus
Since the military coup in February 2021, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly extended the state of emergency under the 2008 Constitution, delaying the promised elections. Now, more than four years later, he has announced a tentative election timeline.
During his official visit to Russia, followed by a trip to Belarus, Min Aung Hlaing revealed the election timeline at a press conference alongside the Belarusian leader. Notably, instead of addressing the Myanmar public first, he chose to disclose this information while returning from a visit to Russia—one of the military council’s key allies. This suggests that the junta is eager to signal its intentions to the international community, particularly to Russia, which it views as a supportive ally.
Min Aung Hlaing’s actions during this trip highlight his emphasis on the official invitation from Russian President Vladimir Putin, reflecting his strong desire for Russian political backing. This visit was also likely aimed at securing diplomatic recognition, military support, and the acquisition of advanced weaponry. Over the past year, the junta has rapidly lost territorial control, prompting an increased reliance on airstrikes and the urgent need for Russian military aid.
During his official visits to Russia and Belarus, Min Aung Hlaing is expected to have sought drones, aviation technology, and other essential weaponry to bolster Myanmar’s military operations. Recent reports indicate that Russian experts have been training local PNA (Pa-O National Army) fighters in drone technology, which played a crucial role in previous battles where junta forces suffered heavy losses. The junta has been actively working since mid-2024 to enhance its drone warfare capabilities, making them an increasingly common presence on the battlefield.
On the domestic front, most observers view the upcoming elections as a delayed and politically motivated maneuver rather than a legitimate democratic process. Political factions within Myanmar largely perceive it as the junta’s desperate attempt to secure a political escape route, while armed resistance groups see it as a tactic that must be blocked.
Over recent months, NUG (National Unity Government), some ethnic armed groups, and local PDF (People’s Defense Force) units have targeted election-related officials, including voter registration personnel.
Despite Min Aung Hlaing’s long-delayed election plans, the current political crisis in Myanmar remains unresolved. The election laws have been unilaterally amended, political parties have been forced to re-register, and opposition figures have faced arrests, imprisonment, and extrajudicial killings. Under such conditions, a free and fair election is impossible.
China, Myanmar’s influential neighbor, has reportedly pressured the junta to hold elections sooner in exchange for continued economic and political cooperation. While China is not necessarily pushing for democracy, it seeks to maintain stability and ensure that no drastic changes disrupt its regional interests.
Russia, on the other hand, lacks the deep economic ties that China has with Myanmar. Its primary interest appears to be strengthening diplomatic relations and maintaining a weapons trade with the junta.
Following Min Aung Hlaing’s Russia visit, a notable development was the arrival of China’s special envoy, Deng Xijun, in Naypyidaw. While the exact purpose of his visit remains unclear, it is widely speculated that China is closely monitoring the junta’s engagements with Russia and its plans regarding the upcoming election.