Myanmar Spring Chronicle – March 11 Perspective
MoeMaKa, March 12, 2025
Neighboring Countries’ Assessment of Myanmar’s Future
The prolonged armed conflict and gradual weakening of central control in Myanmar have raised concerns among some neighboring countries about the country’s future unity.
China’s influence over armed groups in northeastern Myanmar and its control over border openings are well-documented. However, recent discussions among state-level representatives from India’s border regions—such as Chin State, Upper Sagaing Region, and bordering Indian states—indicate that not only China but also India is reassessing Myanmar’s future trajectory.
In late February, Indian Rajya Sabha (Upper House) member PU K. Vanlalvena visited the Chin National Front (CNF) headquarters in Chinland and emphasized the historical connection between the Mizo and Chin ethnic groups. He pointed out that until 1935, they coexisted under British colonial rule within India. During this visit, he urged Chin armed groups to consider closer collaboration with India.
Shortly before his visit, Mizoram’s Chief Minister facilitated a reconciliation effort between two major Chin armed factions—Chinland Council (CC) and the Interim Chin National Consultative Council (ICNCC). On February 26, these groups signed an agreement to unify.
The CNF, an armed group with decades of history, leads the Chinland Council, while other armed groups from areas like Tedim, Tonzang, Falam, and Mindat formed the ICNCC. The recent unification effort, backed by Mizoram’s Chief Minister, seeks to consolidate these groups under a single entity.
At the same time, Mizoram’s Rajya Sabha member openly called for integration with Mizoram, raising questions about whether this was merely his personal opinion or reflected broader sentiments within Mizoram’s state government and India’s federal foreign policy.
For over a decade, Myanmar has faced ongoing ethnic armed resistance, exacerbated by the post-2021 military coup, leading to over four years of intensified armed conflict. With millions displaced, both internally and into neighboring countries, the suggestion of Chin-Mizoram unification adds a new dimension to the crisis.
Just a week after this call for integration, a legislator from India’s Manipur State Assembly, Leishemba Sanajaoba, reignited historical discussions about Kabaw Valley, arguing that it was leased to Myanmar during British colonial rule and later gifted to Myanmar by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in 1953. He advocated for its reintegration into Manipur during an assembly session.
Kabaw Valley, covering 22.2 square kilometers, was historically part of Manipur but was officially handed to Myanmar in 1953. The renewed call to reclaim it highlights deep-rooted ethnic and historical ties being leveraged in geopolitical debates.
These discussions, referencing shared ethnic, linguistic, and cultural identities, suggest that some political figures in neighboring countries are re-evaluating Myanmar’s territorial integrity amid its internal fragmentation. As Myanmar struggles with governance challenges, armed group dominance over various regions, and a weakening central authority, these geopolitical perspectives from neighboring countries underscore the fragile state of Myanmar’s unity.
The question now arises: Is Myanmar’s reintegration truly becoming impossible? This is a question that political leaders and military factions within the country must urgently address.
The perspectives of neighboring countries are casting a sharp reflection on Myanmar’s uncertain future, something that Myanmar’s political leaders can no longer afford to ignore.