Myanmar Spring Chronicle – March 3 Overview
MoeMaKa, March 4, 2025
Following the Powerful – Myanmar Military Council’s Trip to Russia and Its Strategic Shift
According to reports dated March 3 (Yangon time, March 4), Myanmar’s military junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, has officially arrived in Russia on a state visit. According to BBC News, this marks his fourth visit to Russia since the coup and his second meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Analysts note that as the civil war in Myanmar has intensified between 2024 and 2025, China’s mediation efforts have increased, while Myanmar’s economic and military ties with Russia have also deepened.
Both Russia and China refrained from voting on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution on Myanmar at the end of 2022. The December 2022 UNSC Resolution 2669, which called for an immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar and the release of political prisoners, was not vetoed by Russia and China, but they abstained from the vote.
Currently, U.S. foreign policy has been shifting toward closer ties with Russia. At the end of February 2025, the UN General Assembly passed Resolution ES-11/8, which reaffirmed Ukraine’s sovereignty and urged for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. However, the U.S. voted against the resolution, aligning with Russia. This shift in U.S. policy suggests that Min Aung Hlaing’s trip to Russia aims to signal Myanmar’s alignment with Russia, while also highlighting the significance of Russia’s support alongside China’s influence.
Recently, public disagreements between Ukrainian and U.S. leaders have surfaced in the media, signaling a global shift toward power politics. Analysts argue that authoritarian regimes like Myanmar’s military junta are increasingly aligning themselves with powerful autocratic leaders for protection and legitimacy. The days when media scrutiny and public accountability could restrain such regimes seem to be fading.
For Myanmar’s junta, as their territorial control shrinks due to the ongoing civil war, they have become increasingly dependent on military hardware, air power, and strategic weaponry. The junta’s perception of the Myanmar people as expendable resources—as forced laborers, forced soldiers, or collateral damage—is becoming increasingly evident. Their primary objective is simply to maintain their rule through force.
In the past, before Donald Trump won the presidency, international politics still valued human rights, dignity, and democratic principles. However, today, the balance of power favors authoritarian regimes, where the rights of the weak no longer hold importance.
Military Support from Russia vs. China
Russia’s fighter jets are more reliable for Myanmar’s military compared to China’s.
- Russia: Myanmar purchased MiG-29 and Su-30SME fighter jets, financed through Russian loans.
- China: Myanmar acquired JF-17 Thunder jets, but due to technical issues and reliability problems, many have been grounded.
- Drone Warfare: While Russia provides conventional airpower, Myanmar relies heavily on Chinese drones.
Myanmar’s junta also procures a wide range of weapons from both Russia and China:
- Russia supplies tanks, air defense systems, artillery, and small arms.
- China provides drones, missile systems, armored vehicles, and various small arms.
In terms of military training,
- Russia offers elite officer training, military education, and nuclear science programs.
- China provides basic ground troop training, strategic guidance, and intelligence-sharing.
On the diplomatic front,
- Russia shields Myanmar at the UN, helping it avoid Western sanctions.
- China takes a pragmatic approach, maintaining ties with the junta while also engaging with ethnic armed groups along its border.
China’s economic leverage over Myanmar is far greater than Russia’s.
- Myanmar depends on China for trade, infrastructure, and border stability, making China’s influence deeper.
- While Myanmar buys Russian arms, its economic reliance on Russia is minimal.
Impact of the Junta’s Rule on Myanmar
During the Spring Revolution, Myanmar’s people have faced a complete halt in economic and social development due to military oppression.
- Education: The civil war has set back four years of progress.
- Economy: Agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare, and social welfare have severely deteriorated.
- Labor Migration: Myanmar’s skilled workforce is now falling behind neighboring countries like China, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
The junta prioritizes forced conscription over economic development, while still sending over 300 military officers to Russia for training annually. As the international landscape shifts toward power politics, Myanmar’s military leaders continue to seek protection and legitimacy from powerful autocratic states, ensuring their survival at the cost of the country’s progress.