Myanmar Spring Chronicle – February 26 Viewpoint
MoeMaKa, February 27, 2025
Lessons from Global Affairs for Myanmar’s Situation
On February 22, 2022, Russian troops launched their invasion of Ukraine, marking the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia war. As the conflict reaches its third anniversary, the United States, which has been the main military supporter of Ukraine, has unexpectedly changed course. It is now engaging in negotiations with Russia, the aggressor, to bring the war to an end.
In the ceasefire negotiations, the U.S. has sidelined Ukraine, holding direct discussions with Russia and only later informing Ukraine of the outcomes while pressuring it to comply. This has come as a shocking revelation not only for Ukraine but also for Western European nations that consider themselves U.S. allies.
From the beginning, the root cause of the war—the expansion of NATO and the recruitment of new member states—was downplayed and denied by Western leaders. Now, with former President Trump’s stance of negotiating with Russia, this approach starkly contrasts with former President Joe Biden’s policies. From the perspective of the Ukrainian president, this shift is undoubtedly a betrayal. However, instead of condemning the U.S. for abandoning Ukraine, he continues to stress the importance of American security guarantees. Meanwhile, under increasing pressure, Ukraine is being pushed to sign agreements allowing the U.S. access to its natural resources as repayment for past military aid and future support.
The shift in U.S. leadership has led to unexpected consequences for Ukraine and has significantly impacted NATO. It has brought about a potential rupture in military and economic alliances between the U.S. and Western European countries, casting doubt on their strategic partnerships.
Before February 22, 2022, questions were already being raised about whether Ukraine had any means to prevent a Russian invasion. Was war inevitable, or was there another way? After the invasion, efforts were made to halt the conflict, but it is worth asking which countries and leaders opposed these peace initiatives. At that time, President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken actively discouraged peace talks while committing to military aid for Ukraine. The U.S. strategy was to entangle Russia in a prolonged conflict that would drain its military and economic strength.
Looking back, Ukraine has been used as a tool in America’s global strategic plan for the past three years. Now, with Trump returning to power, he is reversing Biden’s policies, engaging in direct negotiations with Russia, and prioritizing U.S. economic interests over alliances with Ukraine and Europe. This shift suggests that decisions about the war are no longer in Ukraine’s hands, but rather dictated by U.S. interests.
Lessons for Myanmar
The U.S.’s shifting policies on the Ukraine-Russia war offer critical lessons for Myanmar. Concepts such as sovereignty, democracy, and respect for national independence are not absolute values; rather, they are often sacrificed for global strategic interests and power struggles.
To avoid becoming a battleground for proxy wars, Myanmar’s leaders must be vigilant. Throughout history, smaller nations caught between global powers have often suffered. Myanmar’s own past, including its anti-colonial struggle and experiences during World War II, demonstrates the dangers of relying on foreign powers for short-term gains.
Given Myanmar’s strategic geographical position—bordering the world’s second-largest military power while being in close proximity to its economic rival—the risk of becoming a battleground for global conflicts is real.
Therefore, Myanmar’s federal and democratic challenges must be resolved internally through dialogue and cooperation among stakeholders. If foreign powers are allowed to exert influence, Myanmar risks becoming another pawn in global power struggles, facing consequences similar to those of Ukraine. Political and armed groups within the country must take responsibility to prevent such an outcome.