Myanmar Spring Chronicle – February 8 Scene
MoeMaKa, February 9, 2025
ASEAN and Neighboring Countries’ Efforts to Resolve Myanmar’s Crisis
Recent armed conflicts in Myanmar, their consequences, and related humanitarian emergencies have brought regional concerns into focus. The influx of refugees crossing borders, military deserters, illegal migrants, and the millions of Myanmar migrant workers residing in Thailand, along with the rise in drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human trafficking, and online financial fraud groups, all indicate that Myanmar’s crisis has evolved into a regional issue.
On one hand, ASEAN maintains a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of member states. On the other, security and economic concerns, such as drug trafficking, arms smuggling, and transnational crimes, are increasingly affecting neighboring countries. Additionally, economic interests influence how each nation or power bloc engages with the issue.
While Myanmar’s crisis has had adverse effects on neighboring countries, it has also presented certain opportunities. The influx of migrant workers, for instance, provides cheap labor for neighboring economies. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s inability to properly extract and regulate natural resources has led to the unchecked exploitation of these resources by local armed groups and external entities. Over the past four years of intensified conflict, vast amounts of minerals, gemstones, rare earth elements, timber, and gold have been extracted from Myanmar and sold to neighboring countries. The revenue from these activities has mostly benefited individuals and armed groups rather than contributing to public services or development projects, with much of it fueling further conflict.
Thailand, which shares a long border with Myanmar, has been significantly impacted, hosting large numbers of migrant workers and anti-junta opposition groups. Among Myanmar’s five neighboring countries, Thailand has taken in the highest number of refugees fleeing economic and political instability. Some members of Thailand’s military and political elite have close ties with Myanmar’s military junta, leading to varying responses to the crisis.
Recently, former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in 2006 and lived in exile for over a decade, was appointed by Malaysia’s Prime Minister as ASEAN’s special envoy to help mediate the Myanmar crisis. Following this, Thaksin reportedly attempted to meet with Myanmar’s junta leaders. This development follows a visit by ASEAN’s special envoy, Al-Mannan Hashim, to Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, underscoring Malaysia’s increasing diplomatic efforts as ASEAN’s rotating chair for 2025.
Under Laos’ 2024 ASEAN chairmanship, little progress was made regarding Myanmar, with China playing a more visible role in influencing events within the country. ASEAN remains divided on Myanmar’s crisis, with Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia holding differing perspectives. Due to these divisions, ASEAN has only been able to implement limited measures, such as barring junta representatives from political meetings, rather than imposing stronger actions.
China, leveraging its influence over armed groups in northern Myanmar, has exerted pressure through both incentives and penalties, while simultaneously pushing the junta towards holding elections. To be more effective than China in resolving the crisis, ASEAN must have tangible leverage. Thaksin’s personal connections with the junta will not be enough; a deep understanding of the root causes of the conflict, as well as the perspectives and demands of the key stakeholders, is crucial.
At its core, Myanmar’s crisis revolves around federalism and democracy. Understanding the historical grievances, mistrust, and lessons from past experiences is essential to approaching a solution. While external forces, including neighboring countries and international governments, can play a role, the primary factors shaping Myanmar’s future are the perspectives and aspirations of its own people and internal stakeholders.