Myanmar Spring Chronicle – February 21 Overview
MoeMaKa, February 22, 2025
Airstrikes Without Effective Countermeasures
Seeing daily reports of casualties, injuries, and destruction from airstrikes is no longer surprising. Incidents with high casualties tend to attract more public attention, while reports with fewer or no casualties often receive less focus and are treated as routine news. There are now hardly any regions under the control of the PDFs (People’s Defense Forces) and ethnic armed groups that have not been subjected to airstrikes, except for areas controlled by the Kokang armed group, which recently reached a ceasefire agreement with the military junta.
On February 20 and 21, reports emerged of bombings in Pauktaw Township, Rakhine State, and Naung Cho in northern Shan State. The Naung Cho attack resulted in injuries but no fatalities, whereas the Pauktaw bombing left four civilians dead and 17 others injured. Among the deceased were two children, and children were also among the injured.
Airstrikes often target locations where armed groups are stationed, administrative offices, or places where meetings are held, such as schools, monasteries, and hospitals. The objectives behind these airstrikes could be:
- Directly attacking ethnic armed groups and PDFs opposing the military.
- Disrupting governance in territories controlled by these groups.
- Targeting gatherings called by armed groups to weaken their administration.
- Providing air support during ongoing ground battles.
While some airstrikes aim to retake lost territory, others—such as the Pauktaw attack—appear to be intended to destabilize the area rather than reclaim it.
At present, ethnic armed groups and PDFs lack effective air defense systems. Despite the junta’s lack of governance capabilities, it remains internationally recognized as the ruling authority, preventing opposition groups from purchasing advanced air-defense weaponry. Another possible scenario could be foreign intervention supporting the resistance, but there is no evidence of such involvement yet.
In past civil wars, airstrikes have failed to secure victory for regimes. A notable example is Syria, where, despite Russian air support, Bashar al-Assad’s government ultimately lost key battles once external support waned. Unlike Syria, Myanmar has seen limited foreign intervention, apart from China’s influence over border-based ethnic armed groups.
As resistance forces continue their offensives and attempt to reclaim territory, the pressing question remains: how can they defend against or mitigate the impact of airstrikes? So far, there is no clear answer.