Myanmar Spring Chronicle – February 13 Overview
MoeMaKa, February 14, 2025
Military Airstrikes on Villages in Monywa Township
On the night of February 12 and the morning of February 13, the military council carried out airstrikes on villages in Chaung-U Township, south of Monywa, in Sagaing Region. Reports from local sources state that at least a dozen civilians, including displaced persons, were killed.
The targeted villages—Nyaung Phyu Pin, Buba, Thitseint, Su Lae Kone, and Jo Su—were bombarded by the military’s air force, resulting in at least 13 fatalities and numerous injuries. According to reports, the attacks took place in three waves: one just before midnight on February 12 and two more before dawn on February 13. Among the victims were two children and one elderly individual.
Although the military junta claims that the airstrikes were based on intelligence gathering, the bombed locations were areas where displaced persons had taken shelter and civilians resided. These villages are outside the control of junta forces, raising concerns about potential follow-up ground offensives.
The Military’s Struggle for Control in Sagaing Region
Despite holding control over most towns in Sagaing Region, the military junta has struggled to assert dominance over rural areas, which are largely controlled by resistance forces such as the People’s Defense Force (PDF) and local resistance groups (LPDF) under the National Unity Government (NUG). The junta has been unable to regain full control of the region for several years, and resistance forces have yet to gain the capability to capture and hold major towns or military bases.
Airstrikes in Sagaing villages are not constant but have occurred in the past, including devastating attacks on villages such as Mone Taing Pin, Letyet Kone, and Pazi Gyi. The Pazi Gyi massacre was one of the deadliest attacks on civilians, while the attack on Letyet Kone village school resulted in the deaths of many young students.
A Strategic Shift in the Junta’s Attacks?
The recent airstrikes in Monywa and Chaung-U coincide with a relative lull in fighting in Rakhine, Kachin, Karenni, and Karen States, leading some analysts to speculate that the junta is shifting its military focus to central Myanmar. The ceasefire agreement with the Kokang armed group and ongoing discussions with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) have reduced active conflicts in northern Shan State, while the offensive in Lashio and Mong Yaw has subsided.
Given these developments, the military junta might be redirecting its forces toward the central dry zone—Sagaing and Magway Regions—through a combination of airstrikes and ground assaults. The goal may be to secure stronger control over Naypyidaw, Mandalay, Magway, and Bago Regions.
Implications for Resistance Forces in Central Myanmar
Armed resistance groups in northern Magway and Sagaing must prepare for a possible large-scale offensive by the junta, as it reallocates troops from border regions to central Myanmar. While the junta continues to lose control over territories, it may consolidate its forces in strategic areas such as major cities and trade routes along the Chindwin and Irrawaddy Rivers.
To counter this, resistance forces in central and upper Myanmar may need to strengthen their military coordination and strategic planning. The ability to unify and organize resistance efforts will be crucial in the ongoing conflict.