Myanmar Spring Chronicle – December 31: A Glimpse
MoeMaKa, January 1, 2025
Myanmar’s Prospects and Challenges in 2025
As 2024 draws to a close, questions about what lies ahead for Myanmar in 2025 are on everyone’s minds. Will the flames of conflict spread to the towns and villages where people currently reside? For those displaced by the ongoing war, when will they finally be able to return to their homes? These concerns dominate the thoughts of many.
Conflict Expansion in 2024
Over the past year, conflict zones have expanded significantly. In northern Shan State, areas including Lashio, Kyaukme, Namhsan, and Thibaw saw intense clashes. Similarly, in Kachin State, regions such as Hpakant, Waingmaw, Putao, Panwa, Kanpaikti, Chipwe, and Bhamo were affected. In Rakhine State, nearly the entire region came under the control of the Arakan Army (AA), which gained dominance over approximately 90% of the territory.
Despite territorial gains by ethnic armed groups, the aftermath of conflict has left many displaced, unable to return to their homes due to aerial attacks by the military junta. Economic blockades and restricted trade routes have caused skyrocketing commodity prices, creating dire living conditions for affected populations.
Humanitarian and Economic Crisis
The prolonged conflict has led to widespread disruptions in healthcare, education, and agriculture. Food and consumer goods have reached unprecedented price levels, pushing many into poverty. Compounding this is the risk of forced military conscription, both legal and extrajudicial, as the junta seeks to bolster its ranks.
Future Outlook for 2025
The aftermath of the 2021 military coup has perpetuated armed resistance and conflict across the nation. Unaffected regions, including parts of Bago, Ayeyarwady, and Magway Regions, as well as southern Shan State, Mon State, and Tanintharyi Region, may face new outbreaks of violence in 2025. Displacement to major cities like Yangon and Mandalay is expected to increase as people seek refuge from conflict zones.
The agricultural sector, especially in regions like Sagaing, Mandalay, and Magway, has been severely impacted. Labor shortages, logistical challenges, and unrest have disrupted crop production and transportation. Farmers in Rakhine State report being unable to sell their harvests due to transportation restrictions, leading to waste and financial loss.
Challenges Ahead
With the UN warning of potential food shortages nationwide, Myanmar faces a dual crisis: insufficient production and restricted distribution. Ethnic armed groups and the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) may gain military momentum in the coming year, but for ordinary citizens, survival amidst growing hardships will remain a formidable challenge.