Myanmar Spring Chronicle – January 15 Overview
Moemaka, January 16, 2025
Military Situation in Sagaing Region as NUG Prepares to Establish Offices
Recent reports in the media indicate that some ministries of the National Unity Government (NUG) plan to establish offices and begin operations in Sagaing Region. U Lwin Ko Latt, the NUG’s Minister of Home Affairs, shared this information during an interview with a news agency. It appears that deputy ministers and other officials, such as directors-general, will set up offices to enhance administrative and managerial efficiency within Myanmar.
Officials at the deputy ministerial level and below, as well as staff members, are expected to relocate from liberated areas to Sagaing Region. Additionally, it’s understood that some individuals currently abroad may return to establish a presence locally. However, union ministers will not be part of this move due to security concerns or potential challenges for those in third countries to return.
The decision to establish offices in Sagaing Region stems from challenges in coordination and decision-making across dispersed ministries. The Minister of Home Affairs explained that setting up offices in Sagaing aims to address these issues. The operations are expected to begin in January, though specific locations remain undisclosed for security reasons.
Sagaing was chosen because it is not an ethnic region, covers a vast area with many townships, and already has People’s Defense Forces (PDF) organized by township and district. While some areas in Sagaing provide natural defense with mountain terrain, the open plains pose potential security risks. Additionally, the region’s many entry and exit points could make it vulnerable to infiltration or attacks.
This move aligns with a recent call by the Acting President for individuals abroad to return. It also raises hopes of consolidating the scattered PDF groups in central Myanmar (Upper Magway and Sagaing). However, challenges remain in uniting these groups, which are currently organized at the village, township, or district levels.
In some regions bordering Rakhine, Kachin, and Northern Shan, ethnic armed groups collaborate with PDFs, providing military training and equipment. These alliances have facilitated joint operations, such as those seen in Operation 1027 in Northern Shan, where PDF forces from other regions joined the fight.
Sagaing’s large population offers both opportunities and risks. If successful, the NUG’s move could unify the fragmented PDF groups. However, failure to achieve unity might lead to internal conflicts or disputes.
For the military council, Sagaing and Mandalay Regions are key areas due to their proximity to Naypyidaw, the junta’s administrative headquarters. This geographic advantage makes it difficult for the junta to isolate Sagaing from other regions, such as Chin, Rakhine, Kachin, or Northern Shan.
While Sagaing’s geography offers advantages, such as strategic locations for PDFs, it also poses logistical and security challenges. However, from a political and mobilization standpoint, establishing a presence in central Myanmar, where the majority Bamar population resides, holds significant strategic value for the NUG compared to operating from remote border regions.