Myanmar Spring Chronicle – January 14 Perspective
MoeMaKa, January 15, 2025
Escalating Conflicts and Humanitarian Needs in 2025
In 2025, Myanmar is likely to face an increase in widespread conflicts and a surge in displaced civilians requiring urgent assistance.
During the early days of the military coup, Padoh Saw Thamein Htoo, a member of the KNU Central Committee, emphasized in a media interview that armed groups must consider not only military objectives but also the safety, security, and humanitarian needs of civilians in conflict zones. He highlighted the critical importance of incorporating the welfare of displaced individuals into strategic planning.
For over 70 years, the people of Myanmar have endured the consequences of civil war—conflicts between the military and armed resistance groups as well as inter-ethnic clashes. These wars have resulted in generations of internally displaced persons (IDPs) who have had to flee their homes, sometimes for brief periods and sometimes for years, seeking refuge in urban areas, forests, or neighboring countries like Thailand and India.
Unlike wars between nations, Myanmar’s conflicts are internal, involving armed factions within its borders. For decades, international humanitarian aid agencies were largely unable to access these war-torn regions. Only in recent decades have organizations like the United Nations, the ICRC, and other international groups been able to provide some support to IDP camps in select areas. Before this, displaced individuals often had no choice but to relocate to nearby villages, remote forests, or even cross borders for safety.
During the so-called “democratic transition” period from 2011 to 2020, numerous peace dialogues and conferences were held. Despite these efforts, conflicts persisted in regions like Kachin and Rakhine States, resulting in approximately 400,000 IDPs. This figure excludes refugees living abroad, such as the Karen, Karenni, and Rohingya populations.
Following the military coup in February 2021, the number of IDPs has skyrocketed—more than tenfold compared to pre-coup levels. According to UN estimates, there are now over 4 million IDPs in Myanmar.
Addressing the needs of this vast population presents significant challenges. The two main obstacles are securing access to provide aid and obtaining sufficient funding. Even international organizations like the UN and the ICRC face restrictions and lack adequate resources to fully support the displaced.
For refugees in neighboring countries, aid is primarily managed by local organizations and host nations, which also struggle with insufficient funding. As displacement becomes prolonged, international support and financial aid have noticeably decreased.
How Are IDPs Coping?
The majority of displaced individuals have lost their homes, possessions, and family members. Many are forced to sell their remaining assets to survive. Although some resistance groups provide limited support to IDP camps, their own resource constraints prevent them from offering extensive assistance.
International agencies and humanitarian organizations face bureaucratic hurdles and funding shortages, further limiting their ability to help. Initial efforts to assist IDPs in regions like Chin State and Karenni areas following the coup have also waned over time.
The Human Cost
In urban areas, residents must decide when and how to flee. Those without financial means often have no choice but to remain in their homes, attempting to survive amid the dangers of artillery shelling and airstrikes. For many, daily survival is a gamble.
Despite these hardships, acts of mutual aid and sharing among communities have been observed. At the same time, reports of looting and theft highlight the darker side of the crisis.
Ultimately, resolving these challenges lies in the hands of political and military leaders, who must prioritize the well-being of civilians caught in the crossfire.