Myanmar Spring Chronicle – January 29 Overview
MoeMaKa, January 30, 2025
China’s Influence and the Withdrawal of Kokang Armed Forces from Lashio
During the Chinese New Year celebration held in Lashio on January 28, a representative from China mentioned in a speech that the Kokang armed forces under the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which had taken control of Lashio, would withdraw after the New Year festival. This statement was made in front of the audience and was recorded in a video spoken in Chinese, which has since been widely shared on social media platforms. Some news agencies have also reported that the Chinese representative stated the MNDAA forces would withdraw from Lashio and that the military junta has agreements recognizing areas such as Theinni, Kunlong, Laukkai, and Kutkai as special administrative zones with self-governing authority.
Some social media posts claim that Lashio will be placed under civilian administration and that no armed groups will be stationed there. However, no official news agency has been able to verify this information. Given the current situation, where armed groups control various territories and instability persists, the claim that there will be no military presence and only civilian administration seems unlikely. The junta’s governance model does not allow them to control the city without military forces, just as MNDAA would not be able to administer Lashio without their presence.
The situation suggests that MNDAA is under pressure from the Chinese government and has been forced to withdraw. Throughout its northern Shan State offensives, MNDAA collaborated with other armed groups, commonly referred to as PDFs (People’s Defense Forces), and played a leading role in the 1027 Operation, capturing military bases, regiments, towns, and territories. However, if MNDAA can no longer participate in the nationwide struggle to remove the junta, it raises questions about what agreements were made and how the group justifies this decision.
If MNDAA indeed relinquishes Lashio after a month-long offensive, during which they invested significant resources and suffered casualties, there will likely be criticisms about how to justify their sacrifices. While MNDAA initially aimed to include the northeastern command headquarters and surrounding areas within Kokang’s Special Region 1, it appears that they were unable to resist pressure from China and decided to withdraw. Reports suggest that this withdrawal will take place gradually after the Chinese New Year, with some sources indicating that it has already begun.
If even MNDAA, which successfully took over the Northern Shan State Military Command Headquarters, is forced to retreat due to Chinese pressure, the next likely group to face similar coercion could be the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
Other News: U.S. Deportations and Funding Cuts
In other news, the new U.S. administration has implemented spending cuts and deportation measures, which may affect some Myanmar nationals residing in the United States. The administration has suspended a $45 million education funding program under the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiative, which previously provided scholarships for Myanmar students pursuing higher education.
Additionally, 679 Myanmar nationals are among those facing deportation under the U.S. crackdown on undocumented immigrants. It remains unclear whether these individuals fled Myanmar due to political persecution or migrated for economic reasons. Former President Trump had promised during his campaign to take a hard stance on illegal immigration, and his administration is now actively implementing these policies.
The suspension of the DEI education program means that Myanmar students who benefited from this five-year initiative will no longer receive support beyond the first year. The program was introduced after the military coup to help Myanmar youth access higher education in the U.S., but the new administration has now ordered the termination of all DEI-related initiatives.