Myanmar Spring Chronicle – December 27 Scene
MoeMaKa, December 28, 2024
Review of Key Events in 2024 (Part 1)
The events of February 1, 2021, marked the beginning of a deep descent into crisis for Myanmar. From that day forward, the nation’s fate became mired in a series of increasingly severe events that have persisted year after year. The peaceful protests of 2021 culminated in brutal crackdowns, arrests, and deadly violence, pushing the population towards armed resistance. By mid-2021, armed clashes began and have since escalated steadily, continuing into the present.
Over the past three years, the country has been plagued by armed conflicts, mass displacements, killings, airstrikes, famine, lack of healthcare, and widespread violence. Amidst these adversities, the people of Myanmar have struggled to survive.
Looking back at 2024, the year was marked by intense battles, mass killings, urban warfare, and the displacement of tens of thousands. The military’s Operation 1027, launched at the end of the previous year, intensified throughout 2024, reshaping the dynamics of control in many areas. Additionally, the year brought extreme weather events, record-breaking heat, natural disasters, and severe economic hardships. Blockades and restrictions on goods and aid delivery further compounded the challenges, particularly in conflict-affected regions.
Regional Overview:
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Kachin State
The Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA) achieved significant military successes in 2024. The group secured control of jade-rich Hpakant and other resource-rich areas in eastern Kachin State, effectively taking over most of the region’s lucrative jade and mineral trade. By December, KIA had also initiated attacks on Bhamo, with prospects of capturing the city. KIA now controls key trade routes and border crossings with China, making 2024 a notably successful year for the group. -
Sagaing Region
While Sagaing saw some resistance efforts, they were not as successful as in Kachin, Rakhine, or northern Shan States. Attempts to seize certain towns were short-lived, with resistance forces often retreating under military counterattacks. For instance, the BRNA’s four-day offensive to capture Pale in November ended in withdrawal, and similar attempts in Depayin in August also failed. -
Mandalay Region
Resistance forces such as MDY-PDF, in collaboration with ethnic armed groups like the TNLA, managed to temporarily control areas in Myittha and Naungcho, reaching as far as villages near the Irrawaddy River in northeastern Mandalay. However, by year-end, some of these gains were reversed. Speculation about potential offensives towards Pyin Oo Lwin and Mandalay diminished due to Chinese pressure on northern Shan State armed groups to cease fighting and engage in dialogue. -
Rakhine State
The Arakan Army (AA) emerged as the most militarily successful ethnic armed group in 2024, capturing nearly all of Rakhine State. Starting in late 2023, the AA conducted offensives that left only a few towns like Kyaukphyu, Manaung, Sittwe, and Gwa under military control. Despite facing airstrikes and blockades, AA now dominates 11 of the state’s 15 townships. Rebuilding and governance in 2025 are expected to be challenging under these constraints. -
Northern Shan State
Northern Shan experienced significant shifts in control during 2024. Key towns such as Lashio, Hsipaw, Kyaukme, and Naungcho came under the control of alliances like the Northern Brotherhood and other ethnic armed groups. The Kokang forces captured the Northeastern Regional Command headquarters in Lashio, displacing tens of thousands of residents. -
Southern Shan State
The Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLA) saw its first battles with the military post-2021 coup. Notably, fighting erupted in Hopong, leading to the displacement of locals. Clashes resumed after the military intercepted a PNLA arms convoy in January 2024, signaling a resurgence of conflict in the region.
Closing Note:
As 2024 comes to an end, cities like Hpakant and Lashio remain under the control of ethnic armed groups, while others like Hopong and Loikaw have reverted to military hands. Rakhine and Kachin States have emerged as key regions of resistance, with military control increasingly eroded. However, the human cost of the conflict continues to grow, with displaced populations facing immense challenges in a country reshaped by violence and political turmoil.