Myanmar Spring Chronicle – November 25 Update
(MoeMaKa, November 26, 2024)
TNLA Announces Readiness for Talks with Military Council
On November 25, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) issued a statement titled “A Declaration of Readiness for Dialogue to Resolve Escalating Conflicts”, which can be seen as evidence of the effectiveness of China’s pressure on the parties involved.
This unexpected statement emerged amidst intense military operations aimed at seizing key military bases of the junta in the southern region of Namkham over the past several months. Following the initial 1027 offensive campaign launched late last year, negotiations mediated by China began in Haigen, Yunnan Province, after just a few months. Although a ceasefire was achieved by late June to early July, a second wave of offensives resumed shortly thereafter, resulting in the TNLA capturing more territory, towns, and military bases than during the first campaign. Cities such as Namkham, Namsan, Mantong, Kyaukme, Hsipaw, Mongkut, Naungcho, Namtu, and Kutkai are now under TNLA control, with administrative structures and taxation systems firmly established, signaling the foundation of what TNLA refers to as “Ta’ang State.”
However, border trade stations connecting with China have halted the transportation of essential goods such as food, fuel, medicine, and other non-lethal supplies needed for the conflicts, further complicating the situation.
The statement highlights two primary reasons for TNLA’s willingness to engage in talks:
- The humanitarian impact of escalating airstrikes and intense fighting on civilians.
- Acknowledgment of China’s efforts to mediate peace and stability along the border.
The TNLA appears to be responding to Chinese pressure to enter discussions while maintaining its hold on captured territories.
In the statement, TNLA also acknowledges the positive outcomes of China’s interventions and pledges to continue cooperating with China to achieve meaningful results. The military group reaffirms its commitment to the long-term goals of freeing the Ta’ang people from oppression, securing the establishment of Ta’ang State, and contributing to the creation of a federal union that guarantees self-determination for ethnic minorities.
The statement concludes by emphasizing the TNLA’s readiness to engage in dialogue to find solutions for the ongoing conflict, protect the rights of civilians, and defend its controlled territories against aggression from the military junta.
Analysis and Implications
This announcement indicates that China’s influence on TNLA remains significant, pushing both military and diplomatic fronts to maintain territorial gains. TNLA’s willingness to engage in dialogue could potentially lead to concessions on territorial and military operations or agreements on ceasefires and negotiations.
On the other hand, if this statement is a mere response to external pressure rather than a genuine move towards peace, it could signify a political maneuver rather than a substantive shift in the conflict’s dynamics. Both sides might be using dialogue as a strategy to strengthen their positions, with the junta possibly seeking to avoid further territorial losses while leveraging talks to its advantage.
China’s mediation efforts, ongoing since early 2024, aim to stabilize the border and halt escalating conflicts. However, with ethnic armed groups gaining significant ground and the junta struggling to maintain control, the balance of power continues to tilt unpredictably.
The outcome of any potential dialogue will depend on whether the parties genuinely pursue peace or use negotiations as a tactical delay. If substantive agreements emerge, it could mark a turning point in the conflict; otherwise, it may simply add another layer of political maneuvering to Myanmar’s complex situation.