Myanmar Spring Chronicle – October 1
(MoeMaKa) October 2, 2024
Trust in the Census Conducted by the Military Council
Ten years after the nationwide census conducted in 2014, the military council has started a new census on October 1, 2024, despite ongoing conflicts in many regions of the country. At a time when there are at least 3 million internally displaced people and a million more affected by the floods that hit in early September, the military council is moving forward with the census as planned.
In the current state of the country, with widespread unrest and a civil war, many young people who may be at risk of being recruited into the military have fled the country, whether for work or just to escape. Conducting a census under these conditions is widely considered inappropriate.
For any country, a census is important for gathering data to shape economic policies and implement them, as well as for social, health, and educational policies crucial for development. However, in a politically and militarily unstable situation like the one Myanmar is in, with millions of people displaced from their homes in search of safer areas or regions less affected by the conflict, there is significant doubt about whether the census will yield accurate data.
The military council claims the census is necessary for holding elections nearly three years after their coup. From the time the military took power on February 1, 2021, under the pretext of election fraud, they have delayed elections. Now, the census is seen as another excuse for further delaying elections. In the 2020 elections, they seized power citing errors and fraud in the voter list, claiming that a proper election could only be held after a correct voter list is prepared. This suggests the census is part of a stalling strategy.
Furthermore, with over 70 cities and towns under the control of ethnic armed groups or People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), the census cannot possibly collect data on the populations in these regions. Large areas in Northern Shan, Rakhine, and Kachin States, as well as parts of Sagaing, Karenni, and Karen States, are no longer accessible for accurate data collection. These areas will not be able to provide reliable statistics on population, employment, or livelihoods.
While armed conflicts are spreading across the country, even cities not yet affected by fighting are seeing assassinations and bombings. In this climate, people cannot carry out their daily work peacefully, and it is unlikely that the census will yield accurate data. Additionally, there are concerns about how the military council will collect data from people living abroad and in ethnic armed group-controlled areas.
The military council has been known to monitor the families of its political and military opponents, often arresting and torturing them when suspicion arises. As a result, many people are distrustful of the census, fearing that their information may be used against them.
The lack of trust in the military council’s census means that the data collected may be unreliable. The military may use the results for economic and social policies, but it could also be used as a tool to monitor and document opposition figures. Many people may need to be cautious when providing information, while others fear that the military will intimidate and threaten people into participating, particularly in areas with a strong armed presence.